Daily Overview: 6 October 2026

The macro calendar is back-loaded today, with the US trade balance (22:30 AEST) the headline act for commodity watchers. Consensus points to the deficit widening to US$102.2 billion from US$88.6 billion, with imports forecast to jump to US$416.8 billion from US$399.3 billion — a signal that US demand is holding up even as the tariff regime bites. Watch the export line too: a print above the US$314.6 billion forecast would take some heat off the dollar and support base metals pricing into the Asian session.

Three Fed speakers — Williams (23:05), Bowman (00:45) and Logan (09:00) — will be parsed for any shift in tone after the recent run of hawkish repricing. With markets pricing a one-in-four chance of another RBA hike to 4.85 per cent in November, the AUD will take its cue from US yields as much as domestic data. The Ai Group Industry Index (08:00) is forecast at -4, a marginal improvement on -3.5 but still deep in contraction territory — a reminder that Australian manufacturing remains under pressure even as the resources sector carries the economy.

In Europe, German factory orders are forecast to swing to -0.6 per cent month-on-month from +2.5 per cent, a sharp deceleration that would reinforce the industrial recession narrative across the eurozone. EA retail sales are expected to rebound 0.2 per cent after a -0.6 per cent fall, while the UK construction PMI is tipped to improve to 45.5 from 44.3 — still contractionary. The API crude stock change (06:30) will set the tone for oil, with a build of 1.019 million barrels last week.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US ISM Services PMI came in at 54.9 for September, marginally below the 55.0 consensus but still firmly in expansion territory — a resilient services sector keeps the Fed's easing path shallow.
• Japan's consumer confidence index printed at 35.4, a touch above the 35.3 consensus but below the prior 35.5, suggesting households remain cautious.
• Australia's Westpac consumer confidence data was released with the change forecast at -1.2 per cent and the index at 83.4, continuing a run of sub-85 readings that signal persistent household pessimism.

Resources & Commodities

• Australia's resources and energy export earnings are forecast to rise to $422 billion in 2026-27, up $19 billion year-on-year, according to the September Resources and Energy Quarterly, with AI infrastructure and the energy transition underpinning demand. Iron ore remains the largest export by value but earnings are tipped to fall from $123 billion to $107 billion, while copper is forecast to climb from $14 billion to $19 billion by 2030-31 and critical minerals to rise to $26 billion in 2026-27.
• Mining remained Australia's largest corporate taxpayer in 2024-25 despite weaker commodity prices, with the mining, energy and water segment's tax payable dropping $12.5 billion while every other industry segment grew, per the ATO's latest transparency report.
• An intensifying El Niño is threatening tropical commodity prices, with cocoa rallying to near US$5,400 a tonne and West Africa — which produces roughly 65 per cent of global supply — facing crop failure risk. Coffee, sugar and vanilla are also exposed, while Far North Queensland's banana crop, 94 per cent of the national total, is at severe risk.
• Fenner Conveyors has partnered with Tyrecycle to recycle decommissioned conveyor belts, with Gladstone Ports Corporation sending six belts weighing 122 tonnes to be converted into new rubber products — an estimated saving of more than 190 tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• Sandvik and Subterra Asset Solutions have delivered Subterra's first LS312 flameproof loaders in Australia as part of a 10-unit fleet, while Lincom Group opened a Tasmanian branch in Launceston in July to service mining operations around Rosebery, Renison and Savage River.

Gold & Exploration

• Brightstar Resources intersected 167m at 2.07 g/t gold at its Bull Oak deposit within the Sandstone operations, including 10m at 25 g/t from 120m, with the next resource update expected to materially increase the Indicated component ahead of a PFS due before end-2026.
• Red Hill Minerals has commenced a 1,700m diamond drilling campaign at its 860-square-kilometre Broken Hill project, testing the Furiosa copper-gold and Dementus lead-zinc-silver targets, with drilling expected to finish in late November.
• Maritana Minerals secured all statutory approvals for its Black Swan processing hub after the Native Vegetation Clearing Permit was granted, extending its early works agreement with GR Engineering to October 2027 with an additional $6.5 million commitment. First gold is targeted for H2 CY2027.
• Rox Resources achieved financial close on $350 million in debt facilities for its Youanmi gold mine, drawing down an initial $90.2 million, with construction accelerating toward target first gold in mid-2027.
• King River Resources reported a 79 per cent success rate from first-pass drilling at its Mindoolah gold project, with 15 of 19 phase 1 RC holes returning significant mineralisation at an average depth of about 41m below surface.

Macro & Markets

• The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent, with major banks lifting fixed mortgage rates by nearly double that — NAB up 47 basis points to 6.81 per cent, CBA up 48 and Westpac up 45 — as deposit shrinkage and Macquarie's mortgage book growth (3.2 times the system average) squeeze funding costs.
• Treasurer Jim Chalmers, speaking in Tokyo, dismissed record-low economic approval ratings and announced an Export Finance Australia agreement with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation covering energy security, critical minerals and supply chains, while reassuring Japan that the domestic gas reservation policy would not undermine Australia's role as an LNG supplier.
• Firmus Technologies told fundies that interest in its $7.9 billion IPO was "well in excess" of the offer size at $11 a share, with about half the deal allocated to existing backers including Nvidia and Blackstone. The ASX introduced an $8 million cap on initial listing fees ahead of the float, which would be the second-largest in Australian history.
• More than a quarter of homes on the market nationally have sat unsold for six months or more, with preliminary auction clearance at 48 per cent over the weekend, as Morgan Stanley warns the housing market faces its worst fall in four decades.
• KPMG Australia is seeking up to $100 million in emergency loans from its global network and a waiver of its more than $100 million annual levy, after its audit division scandal led to client departures including ANZ's $24 million-a-year contract, a 13 per cent cut to partner pay and a 5 per cent workforce reduction in August.
• CSL signed an exclusive deal with Swiss biotech Alentis Therapeutics worth up to $2.2 billion to develop lixudebart for ANCA-associated vasculitis, its first major deal since billions in writedowns on the Vifor kidney business.