Daily Overview: 16 July 2026

Oil markets remain the key flashpoint this morning. Brent crude has settled at $78 a barrel after Trump abandoned his Strait of Hormuz shipping fee plan, but the IMF warns global reserves are at half pre-conflict levels and a supply shock could still drive prices above $100. Watch for any escalation in US-Iran military strikes — the physical shortfall window is narrowing to weeks, not months.

Iron ore is under pressure. Rio Tinto’s Q2 export rebound to 85.26 million tonnes was a solid operational recovery, but unit costs are rising on a $180 million diesel bill and a stronger Australian dollar, while the benchmark price has slipped below $100/tonne. The market will be watching for cost guidance from other Pilbara producers and any demand signals out of China.

On the policy front, Albanese’s AI data centre mandate — requiring new facilities to be net power generators and minimise water use — will reshape the energy demand outlook for resources. The CSIRO GenCost report already shows batteries undercutting gas for peak supply, and the NT is pushing hard for a Beetaloo pipeline instead of a gas reservation scheme. Lithium stocks are also in focus after Core Lithium’s Finniss milestones and Global Lithium’s Nova acquisition, signalling renewed confidence in the sector despite subdued spodumene prices.

Iron Ore & Steel

• Rio Tinto's iron ore exports rose 7% year-on-year to 85.26 million tonnes in Q2, recovering from cyclone disruptions, but unit costs are rising due to higher diesel prices (adding $180 million) and a stronger Australian dollar, while iron ore prices have fallen below $100/tonne.
• Mining services companies Macmahon Holdings and NRW Holdings have seen shares surge over 200% and 123% respectively in the past year, driven by strong resources demand from the AI boom and energy transition, with both diversifying into civil engineering.

Lithium & Battery Minerals

• Core Lithium reported Q2 progress at Finniss, including the start of mining at Grants open pit, commencement of underground decline at BP33, and a sales agreement with Glencore for ~45,000 tonnes of lithium fines, ending the quarter with $181.8 million cash.
• Global Lithium Resources acquired IGO's Nova nickel operation for $7 million, intending to repurpose the processing plant for its Manna lithium project, targeting spodumene production by mid-2027.

Copper & Base Metals

• Rio Tinto's copper equivalent production rose 3% in the first half of 2026, with copper output at Oyu Tolgoi up 31% year-on-year, while the company reduced copper C1 cost guidance to US 30-50 cents per pound.
• Aeris Resources reported FY26 copper equivalent and gold production within guidance, with Tritton copper output up 19% year-on-year, and ended the quarter with $202.3 million cash to fund the Constellation project.

Energy & Policy

• The CSIRO GenCost report found that batteries are now cheaper than gas for peak electricity supply in Australia, as rising gas turbine costs driven by US data centre demand and falling battery costs shift the competitive landscape, with solar and wind projected to supply up to 93% of electricity by 2050.
• The Northern Territory government rejected the federal gas reservation scheme, instead requesting backing for a major pipeline from the Beetaloo Basin to the east coast, as companies including Tamboran Resources and Santos develop the basin.
• Oil prices remain volatile after President Trump abandoned a plan to impose a 20% shipping fee on the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude falling to $78/barrel, but the IMF warns global oil reserves are running low and prices could spike if disruptions persist.
• Prime Minister Albanese announced mandatory AI data centre standards requiring them to generate more power than they consume and minimise water use, alongside a new copyright regime for AI training, as part of a broader AI regulation push.