Today's Useless Fact
It is impossible to lick your elbow.
Daily Overview: 1 September 2026
published: 2026-09-01
The Day Ahead
All eyes turn to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI tonight (00:00 AEST) — consensus expects a slight cooling to 55.0 from 55.6, but with the Dallas Fed index smashing expectations yesterday at 11.6 versus 0.7 consensus, the risk is skewed to another hot print that complicates the Fed's rate pivot. Watch the JOLTs job openings alongside it; a tight labour market keeps the pressure on.
European inflation flash data at 19:00 AEST is the other big one — forecast to accelerate to 3.2% from 2.9%, which would reinforce the global inflation stickiness theme that's been driving gold to record highs and soft commodities through a 20-year downtrend. Locally, AU Building Permits at 11:30 are expected to swing sharply lower (-3.6% vs +7.2% prior), and the CN RatingDog Manufacturing PMI at 11:45 should confirm whether yesterday's NBS print (49.8, still in contraction) reflects genuine weakness or statistical noise.
Gold's 10% August surge and the soft commodity breakout are the stories to watch today — with the RBA facing a fourth potential rate hike and the budget under pressure, the inflation impulse from commodities is becoming the macro story of the second half.
Currency Movements
| Pair | Price | 24hr Change | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 0.7161 | -0.0003 (-0.04%) | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1602 | -0.0054 (-0.46%) | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3546 | +0.0012 (+0.09%) | |
| USD/JPY | 159.64 | +0.3160 (+0.20%) | |
| USD/CAD | 1.3901 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) | |
| USD/CHF | 0.8087 | +0.0049 (+0.61%) | |
| NZD/USD | 0.5915 | +0.0000 (+0.00%) |
Economic Calendar
Australia
| Time | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 September | |||||
| 11:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM Prel | 7.2% | -4.8% | -3.6% |
| 2 September | |||||
| 09:00 | AU | Ai Group Industry Index | -29.9 | -32 | |
| 11:30 | AU | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 3 September | |||||
| 11:30 | AU | Balance of Trade | A$1.929B | A$1.40B | A$1.1B |
| 8 September | |||||
| 10:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6% | -3.6% | |
| 11:30 | AU | NAB Business Confidence | -6 | -8 | |
| High impact * Revised value | |||||
International
| Time | Country | Event | Previous | Consensus | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 September | |||||
| 11:45 | CN | RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 51 | 51.2 |
| 15:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 35 | 35 |
| 16:00 | DE | Retail Sales MoM | -1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 16:00 | DE | Retail Sales YoY | -0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16:00 | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 16:00 | GB | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| 18:30 | GB | BoE Consumer Credit | £1.807B | £1.8B | £1.9B |
| 18:30 | GB | Mortgage Approvals | 58.2K | 59.4K | 57.9K |
| 18:30 | GB | Mortgage Lending | £7.73B | £4.6B | |
| 19:00 | EA | Inflation Rate YoY Flash | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 19:00 | EA | Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 19:00 | EA | Inflation Rate MoM Flash | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 19:00 | EA | Unemployment Rate | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 22:00 | IN | Current Account | $7.1B | $ -7.4B | |
| 23:05 | US | Fed Barr Speech | |||
| 23:30 | CA | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | 52.7 | |
| 2 September | |||||
| 00:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | 55.2 | 55 |
| 00:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.359M | 7.3M | 7.4M |
| 00:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.8 | 52.5 | |
| 06:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 4.2M | ||
| 23:45 | CA | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| 4 September | |||||
| 00:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.3 | 54 |
| 22:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 22:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | -23K | 58K | 42.0K |
| 22:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| 5 September | |||||
| 00:00 | CA | Ivey PMI s.a | 55.1 | 56.2 | 55.7 |
| 8 September | |||||
| 13:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | $112.5B | $120.0B | |
| 13:00 | CN | Exports YoY | 23.9% | ||
| 13:00 | CN | Imports YoY | 27.5% | ||
| 16:00 | DE | Balance of Trade | €15.4B | €17.5B | |
| High impact * Revised value | |||||
Yesterday's Key Stories
Economic Releases
- China's NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 (vs 49.7 consensus) but remains in contraction territory, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI missed badly at 49.0 (vs 49.5 consensus) — the first sub-50 services print in months signals broadening weakness in the world's largest commodity consumer.
- US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index exploded to 11.6 versus 0.7 consensus, the strongest reading in years and a clear upside surprise that complicates the Fed's easing narrative.
- German preliminary inflation came in at 2.9% (vs 3.0% consensus), marginally softer than expected but still pointing to sticky price pressures ahead of today's eurozone flash.
Gold & Precious Metals
- Gold rallied 10% in August to around $4,436 as US government debt passed $40 trillion, with ETF providers tipping $5,000+ by 2027 — though Westpac and NAB strategists remain sceptical of the debasement trade.
- WA is in the midst of a gold rush: record $1.93 billion spent on gold exploration nationally in FY26, with Kalgoorlie driller Topdrill reporting "unprecedented demand" and gold accounting for 95% of its workload.
- Northern Territory mineral production hit a record $6.08 billion, up 39.6%, driven by gold sales up 60% to $2.665 billion and South32's GEMCO manganese output surging 174% post-Cyclone Megan.
- Ballard Mining secured the West Knell mining lease at Mt Ida after a standout 9m at 27.1 g/t gold intercept, targeting a 1.5 Moz resource for feasibility; Maritana Minerals declared a maiden 31,600oz reserve at Rose Hill with first gold targeted for H2 2027.
Lithium & Battery Minerals
- Liontown reported a maiden NPAT of $93 million on record revenue of $639 million, with Kathleen Valley transitioning to underground mining and on track for 2.8 Mtpa by end FY27 — a final investment decision on expansion is due next month.
- Wildcat Resources delivered strong lithium results at Tabba Tabba including 13.9m at 2.0% Li2O, tripled its exploration area via new LCT rights, and is targeting a maiden resource at Bolt Cutter Central by Q4 2026.
Energy & Gas
- Strike Energy soared on a landmark deal with Gina Rinehart's Hancock Energy to develop the West Erregulla gas field, with Hancock lending $30 million and funding the $200 million project — production targeted for 2029 amid WA gas shortage concerns.
- Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners acquired the $1.7 billion Gawara Baya wind farm in Queensland, the largest east coast wind project to reach financial close under the Capacity Investment Scheme, though Clean Energy Regulator data shows the scheme's pipeline remains thin.
Macro & Policy
- ASX investors are "overly optimistic" with earnings growth forecasts slashed to 9.3% from 10.7%, yet the market sits near record highs on an 18x forward P/E — consumer spending is slowing sharply with retail profits down 5.2% in the June quarter, the largest decline since March 2024.
- Treasury warned Australia risks missing the AI boom with fewer than 10% of businesses showing significant adoption, even as Treasurer Chalmers touted AI as the "biggest economic transformation in our lifetime" and $150 billion in data centre construction by 2030.
- Soft commodity prices have broken above a 20-year downtrend, driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, weather disruptions and rising input costs — analysts warn of further gains from a potential super El Nino, adding to inflationary pressure on the RBA.
- Star Entertainment reported a $307 million loss with auditors flagging going-concern doubts over a potential $400 million AUSTRAC fine, while leaked recordings showed executives complaining about "disproportionate" regulatory compliance.
