Daily Overview: 12 November 2026

The Nvidia spy scandal is now the dominant story in global markets, and it has real consequences for the AI infrastructure build-out that has been driving demand for copper, power and data centre capacity. Nvidia's board has retained Wachtell Lipton's Joon H. Kim to investigate CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a woman US officials suspect is a Chinese intelligence asset, the FBI has opened a probe and congressional committees have summoned Huang for a closed-door briefing. Watch for further disclosures and any tightening of US chip export controls — a risk that could delay data centre projects from Melbourne to the Pilbara and complicate Australia's ambitions to become a regional AI hub. Anthropic's IPO bookbuild also continues, with the Australian offer opening Wednesday and closing November 17 ahead of a Nasdaq debut under ANT; after Nvidia's 6 per cent dive and a near-30 per cent fall since October 6, the pricing will be a critical sentiment test for the AI trade.

The Australian dollar is at a fresh seven-month low near US68.78¢ after a hot US inflation print, and the currency weakness is now a genuine problem for the RBA. Markets are pricing a higher chance of an RBA rate rise than a cut, while US markets are fully priced for a quarter-point Fed increase next month and are weighing a larger move. The RBA's own economists published research yesterday arguing AI is currently inflationary — data centre investment has grown 10-fold in three years with $115bn more expected by end-2028, and a 200 per cent surge in South Korean DRAM prices is flowing into equipment costs. Australia's 10-year yield hit 5.4 per cent in September, the highest since 2011. Watch for any RBA commentary on the currency and the AI-inflation channel.

On the resources front, Rio Tinto's auction of its Pilbara and Canadian energy infrastructure assets is entering its final round, with binding offers due in the first week of December and the portfolio expected to fetch at least $7bn — a deal that will reshape ownership of more than 500MW of power generation for the iron ore business. Australia-US critical minerals talks continue, with EXIM chairman John Jovanovic in Sydney and more than US$6bn already offered across 15 Australian projects. The government's gas reservation legislation faces a year-end deadline with the Coalition and Greens both demanding changes. And Victoria's pre-election budget update is due Thursday, with the state's debt trajectory — projected at $200bn by 2030 — a live issue ahead of the November 28 election.

Markets & Macro

• The ASX is set to fall after Wall Street declined on an inflation print and Nvidia dived 6 per cent; the AUD hit a fresh seven-month low near US68.78¢, adding to imported inflation and complicating the RBA's inflation fight.
• Nvidia's board retained Wachtell Lipton partner Joon H. Kim to investigate CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a woman US officials suspect is a Chinese intelligence asset; the FBI has opened a probe, congressional committees have summoned Huang, and Nvidia shares are down almost 30 per cent since October 6.
• Anthropic lodged its Australian prospectus for a proposed listing at a fully diluted valuation of about $US1.4trn, raising up to $US90.4bn; the Australian offer opens Wednesday and closes November 17 ahead of a Nasdaq debut under ANT, with eight local brokers selling to retail.
• RBA research argued AI is currently inflationary, not deflationary: local data centre investment has grown 10-fold in three years with $115bn more expected by end-2028, and a 200 per cent surge in South Korean DRAM prices is flowing into equipment costs. Australia's 10-year yield hit 5.4 per cent in September, the highest since 2011.
• ABS data showed the value of new home loans fell 15.5 per cent in the September quarter — the largest fall on record — with investor lending down almost a third; CBA reported Q1 profit up 8 per cent to $2.8bn but investor home loan applications down 16 per cent quarter-on-quarter.
• Macquarie Bank will pay a $14m penalty and has remediated $8.8m to nearly 40,000 customers over unclear savings 'welcome' rate descriptions; APRA separately added $100m to its capital requirements.
• China's trade surplus topped $US1 trillion in the 10 months to October, with exports up 35.2 per cent, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump prepare to meet at APEC in Shenzhen on November 18-19.

Policy, Trade & Critical Minerals

• Australia and the US held new talks on unlocking further US investment in Australian critical minerals, with Resources Minister Madeleine King meeting US EXIM chairman John Jovanovic on November 10; EXIM has offered more than US$6bn alongside Australian and US agencies for 15 Australian projects under the Critical Minerals Framework.
• The Albanese government's gas reservation plan is in trouble, with the Coalition and Greens rejecting the package; Labor needs one of them to pass laws by year's end. The scheme, due to start January 2028, would reserve up to 20 per cent of exports for domestic use.
• NSW introduced legislation to protect up to 400 jobs at MACH Energy's Mount Pleasant coal mine, allowing production of up to 16.5Mtpa until 2032 and imposing Scope 3 emissions conditions including restrictions on exports to countries without Paris-aligned policies.
• The NT government launched a 10-year workforce strategy to prepare for 29,000 projected new jobs, with the MCA identifying 16 advanced mining projects worth $6.1bn in planned capital investment; Arafura's $1.6bn Nolans rare earths project is under construction and KGL's Jervois copper project was approved.
• At COP31 in Antalya, a Türkiye-backed '35 by 35' plan to lift electricity's share of global energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035 is meeting resistance over whether the increase must come only from clean energy; Australia is pushing a voluntary pledge to double households with rooftop solar to 300 million by 2030.
• Victorian debt has climbed from near zero a decade ago to a projected $200bn by 2030, with interest costs eating 9 per cent of the budget; the state's pre-election budget update is due Thursday ahead of the November 28 election, where polling shows the Coalition on track for majority government.

Gold, Copper & PGM Exploration

• Astral Resources reported its highest-ever individual gold assay — 0.34m at 1146.3 g/t — within a 31m zone grading 13.5 g/t at Theia Deeps, part of the 1.74Moz Mandilla project; the DFS is targeted for the March 2027 quarter.
• Terra Metals hit record PGM grades at its Southwest discovery in WA, returning 1.1m at 72.71 g/t 3E within a broader 31.9m zone grading 3.96 g/t 3E, 0.23% nickel and 0.12% copper; a maiden resource is targeted for Q1 2027.
• Solstice Minerals intersected 34m at 1.53 per cent copper and 0.40 g/t gold at Nanadie, including 22.9m at 2.13 per cent copper, with assays pending from more than 60 drillholes.
• Chalice Mining began continuous pilot plant testing at Gonneville using ~5t of fresh sulphide ore, targeting copper-PGM-gold and nickel-cobalt-PGM-gold concentrates plus PGM doré; initial flotation results are expected in early 2027 and the DFS in H2 2027.
• Minerals 260 secured $410m in credit-approved debt from ANZ, NAB and Société Générale for its Bullabulling gold project, which combined with a $170m Franco-Nevada royalty is expected to fully fund the 6.2Moz project to first gold.
• Red Hill Minerals secured an option to earn 75 per cent of Legacy Minerals' Thomson gold-copper project in NSW and granted Arrow Minerals a 12-month option over its Pannawonica iron ore project (62.5Mt at 53.4% Fe).
• Maritana Minerals started concrete construction at its Black Swan processing hub in WA, extending its early works agreement with GR Engineering by $19.9m, with first gold targeted in H2 CY2027.

Energy, Data Centres & Industrial

• Rio Tinto shortlisted five parties for the final round of its Pilbara and Canadian energy infrastructure auction, expected to fetch at least $7bn, with binding offers due in the first week of December; Blackstone and Ares are bidding for the whole portfolio.
• The Karajarri people hold a 33 per cent stake in Gingerah Energy's proposed WA data centre, the state's biggest, and say it offers jobs and economic opportunity; environmental groups led by Environs Kimberley oppose the project over gas use, though Gingerah targets ~85 per cent renewable electricity from start-up in 2030.
• NextDC faces investor anger at its November 20 AGM after shares fell 42 per cent in one session when a Melbourne facility's installation was halted; proxy adviser Ownership Matters opposes the remuneration report and the re-election of three directors, while Goodman Group and Digital Realty have built a stake of almost 10 per cent.
• Komatsu Mining plans to close its Moss Vale plant by 2030, cutting about 265 jobs, shifting work to Rutherford and Rockhampton and outsourcing some fabrication and machining; the AMWU says original equipment work will move to China.
• InfraBuild secured $375m in debt from Davidson Kempner at about 14 per cent interest after resolving a legal dispute with Greensill Capital's UK administrator, as it looks to extend maturities and fund manufacturing expansion.
• Queensland accounts for half of Australia's proposed onshore wind capacity but is the slowest state to build projects, with an average completion time of about three years, blamed on community opposition, rising costs and policy changes.
• The Clean Energy Regulator permanently suspended Solar Power Nation and 1 Solar Australia from the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme after hundreds of complaints, in a warning to the rooftop solar sector as battery installations hit record levels.