Daily Overview: 24 August 2026

Today's focus will be on the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index due overnight (22:30 AEST), with consensus pointing to a modest improvement to 0.1 from -0.02. A stronger reading could support the USD and weigh on gold, while a miss might fuel risk-off sentiment. Meanwhile, the US-Canada trade war escalation and ongoing Iran conflict continue to drive commodity price volatility, with oil and gold particularly sensitive.

The ASX is set to open lower after US bond yields rose and Walmart tumbled, with investors bracing for a wave of profit downgrades as the local reporting season winds down. Keep an eye on gold miners, which have been buoyed by record prices, and copper plays as BHP's expansion plans and FireFly's capital raising take shape. The AUD will be influenced by risk sentiment and any shifts in commodity prices.

International

Gold & Precious Metals

• Major Australian gold producers reported strong FY26 results, with Ramelius posting a record EBITDA margin of 74% and Alkane's profit surging 590% after merging with Mandalay, driven by higher gold prices.
• Beacon Minerals more than tripled the Ore Reserve at its Iguana deposit to 430,200oz, outlining a nine-year operation with $841 million in undiscounted pre-tax free cash flow at a flat $5500/oz gold price.
• MGX Resources is pivoting from iron ore to gold, making the Central Tanami project its centrepiece, with $412 million in cash and a 50% stake acquired from Northern Star.
• Meeka Metals reported visible gold at its Turnberry underground resource in WA, with assays pending, and is advancing plans for a second underground mine.
• Barton Gold has begun infrastructure sterilisation drilling at Tunkillia, targeting a pre-feasibility study by Q1 2027.

Copper & Base Metals

• BHP's new CEO Brandon Craig is leading the company into its largest spending phase, with $44.7 billion in copper projects aimed at growing production by 40% by 2035, despite execution risks.
• FireFly Metals is planning a $180 million equity raising to fund its Green Bay copper-gold project in Newfoundland, with feasibility studies due at the end of the month.
• Newmont has appointed former BHP CFO Peter Beaven to its board, bringing copper and base metals expertise.

Macro & Policy

• US bond yields rose anew, with 30-year yields near 19-year highs, despite Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention, as concerns over US debt and supply glut persist.
• The US imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods after talks failed, with Canada retaliating dollar-for-dollar, deepening the trade war and raising commodity price uncertainty.
• The ASX is expected to slip, with Walmart tumbling and US bond yields rising, while investors brace for profit downgrades in the Australian reporting season.
• Queensland's critical minerals bill, which expands compulsory acquisition powers, has been recommended for passage despite opposition from farmers and conservationists.