Daily Overview: 3 August 2026

All eyes are on China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI at 11:45 AEST — the consensus is a slight dip to 51.5 from 51.7. A miss here would rattle iron ore sentiment after Fortescue’s sobering guidance and the escalating Pilbara strikes. Tonight, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 54 (from 53.3), which would reinforce the “higher for longer” rates narrative that has already pushed the US 10-year yield to 5.2%. For commodity markets, the key tension is between a resilient US economy and a slowing China — and the Middle East conflict keeps an oil risk premium firmly in place.

The BHP strike escalation and Fortescue’s Iron Bridge impairment will dominate mining headlines today. Unions have imposed a 24-hour ship-loading ban at Port Hedland, threatening $120 million per day in lost revenue. Meanwhile, lithium bulls got a boost from Pilbara Minerals’ record year, but the broader market remains cautious ahead of earnings season. Watch for further fallout from the Apple supply chain warning — component shortages are now bleeding into broader tech and could weigh on ASX-listed materials stocks exposed to electronics.

International

Iron Ore & Steel

• Fortescue reported record iron ore shipments of 201.3 million tonnes for FY26 but took a $1.1 billion pre-tax impairment on its Iron Bridge magnetite project, withdrew its 22 Mtpa capacity target, and issued light FY27 guidance of 197–207 Mt with higher C1 costs of $US20.50–$21.75 per wet metric tonne.
• BHP faces rolling strikes in the Pilbara after unions imposed a 24-hour ship-loading ban and a 24-hour stoppage at Port Hedland, with BHP estimating a shutdown would cut revenues by $120 million per day.
• The Wright family won a legal delay in its royalty battle with Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting over the Hope Downs iron ore operation, deferring its payout structure choice until after a court appeal in February 2027.

Lithium & Battery Minerals

• Pilbara Minerals delivered record FY2025 production of 879,500 tonnes of spodumene concentrate (up 17%) and record sales of 891,600 tonnes, with revenue up 31% to $743 million and cash balance up 57% to $2.29 billion, while progressing the Ngungaju restart and P2000 studies.
• Victory Metals identified a significant secondary phosphate mineral system at its North Stanmore project in WA, with 86% of dysprosium and 82% of terbium hosted in secondary phosphates, supporting its flotation-led beneficiation strategy.

Copper & Base Metals

• Anglo American reported a strong first half of 2026 with underlying earnings up 35% to US$4 billion, driven by copper (EBITDA of $4.1 billion at a 60% margin), and advanced integration planning for the proposed merger with Teck Resources.
• Anglo Teck revealed its new executive leadership team under CEO Duncan Wanblad, targeting copper production growth from ~1.2 million tonnes to 1.35 million tonnes by 2027.

Macro & Policy

• A drone strike near the Suez Canal raised alarm over a key global shipping route, threatening oil prices already elevated by the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade.
• Global bond yields surged in July, with Australia’s 10-year yield rising 20 basis points to 4.9% and US 10-year yields climbing 24 basis points to 5.2%, driven by persistent inflation and central bank tightening concerns.
• Apple shares fell nearly 10% after CEO Tim Cook warned of “very significant” component shortages from AI-driven data centre demand, erasing nearly $500 billion in market value and weighing on tech sentiment.
• The Australian government’s fuel excise cut ended at midnight, adding 16 cents per litre to wholesale prices, with retail unleaded expected to rise to about $2.20 within 10 days.
• Australia’s housing downturn deepened, with auction listings falling nearly 20% year-on-year and national clearance rates at 53.6%, as rising mortgage rates and tax changes sap buyer confidence.