Daily Overview: 22 October 2026

Australia's flash PMIs land at 8am AEDT and are the first real test of whether the domestic economy is slowing fast enough to spare borrowers another rate rise. The manufacturing gauge is tipped to slip deeper into contraction at 49.4 from 49.6, with services easing to 51.1 from 51.9 — still expanding, but losing momentum. That's a soft print, and it arrives with RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser having already warned inflation is "materially worse" than the bank expected and that the board faces "hard choices" on Melbourne Cup day. Markets now price a 41 per cent chance of a November 3 hike, fully priced by March. Japan's inflation read at 9.30am is the other one to watch: core is forecast to jump to 2.0–2.1 per cent from 1.7, a reminder that the era of ultra-cheap yen funding is ending — relevant for every carry trade and every Japanese buyer of Australian coal and LNG. Later, US initial jobless claims (10.30pm AEDT) are expected at 200,000 against 199,000 previously, and BoE governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 8.50pm after UK inflation surprised to the upside yesterday.

Oil is the commodity to watch. Brent is holding around $US109–112 after touching a five-month high, and Westpac is now flagging $US150 in the first half of next year if Washington and Tehran can't close a deal. Yesterday's EIA data did nothing to calm things: crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels against expectations of an 800,000-barrel draw, and gasoline dropped 2.95 million barrels versus a forecast build. Watch whether the market treats that as a supply story or a demand warning — Citi reckons persistently expensive crude plus higher rates could tip the US into recession by March.

The bigger theme is the data centre trade unwinding. NextDC's 40 per cent collapse on Wednesday, after Jemena suspended power connections to its Melbourne M3 site, has dragged the whole AI-infrastructure complex into a repricing, and the read-across isn't confined to equities: AirTrunk and Iren both told Citi's conference that investors have become "a lot more selective". Watch hyperscaler earnings and capex guidance — Meta, Microsoft, Google — for whether the spending that underpins forecasts for Australian gas, copper and power demand survives contact with credit markets. Firmus's new multi-year contract with Thinking Machines is a useful counterpoint, but one deal doesn't fix a financing regime.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• UK inflation surprised to the upside: headline CPI rose 3.5% y/y against 3.4% expected and 3.1% previously, with core at 2.8% versus 2.7% consensus — a hawkish signal ahead of Bailey's speech today.
• US EIA data showed a much larger-than-expected crude draw of 3.06 million barrels (consensus −0.8M) and a 2.95 million-barrel fall in gasoline stocks against a forecast build, both bullish for oil.
• South African inflation came in below expectations at 4.5% y/y versus 4.7% consensus, while the US MBA 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.41% from 7.5%.

Data Centres, AI & Energy

• NextDC cut full-year guidance by up to $145 million and shares plunged 40% after Jemena suspended power connections to its Melbourne M3 data centre amid community opposition to 22-metre concrete poles; underlying EBITDA guidance fell to $245–265 million from $385–410 million.
• AirTrunk and Iren told Citi's investment conference that data centre investors have become "a lot more selective" as borrowing costs rise, following Firmus Technologies' failed $44 billion ASX listing and Elice's 16% slide on its Seoul debut.
• Firmus signed its first major contract since the failed float — a multi-year deal with Thinking Machines Lab, Mira Murati's AI company, to use its Asian infrastructure — and is reportedly in further talks with Nvidia.
• Woodside cut the top of its FY26 production guidance to 181 million barrels and put its Beaumont ammonia project in Texas up for sale, even as quarterly sales rose 2% to $US4.28 billion on a 27% jump in LNG prices.
• Westpac warned Brent could hit $US150 in H1 2027 if the Iran war drags on, with Gulf-to-China tanker charter costs 15 times year-earlier levels; the IMF modelled $US130 oil shaving half a percentage point off global growth.
• Independent senator David Pocock proposed a 5% levy on data centre revenues, modelled to raise $568 million by 2036-37, while a NSW court heard a 16MW gas plant for a Moss Vale data centre campus could be mothballed after two years.

Iron Ore, Copper & Diversified Miners

• Fortescue made its first commercial sale of more than 40 tonnes of copper concentrate treated with its patented Toowong Process, which cut arsenic below 0.25% from feedstock of up to 7%, and completed the acquisition of Alta Copper's Cañariaco project in Peru.
• Fortescue sacked a senior executive after a MinterEllison investigation into sexual harassment and bullying found breaches of company policies; the miner also faces a Federal Court class action from women at its Pilbara camps.
• Anglo American's steelmaking coal output rose 53% to 2.9Mt on the Moranbah North longwall ramp-up, with the $3.875 billion sale to Dhilmar on track for Q1 2027; copper fell 5% to 174,900t on Chilean weather and lower grades at Collahuasi.
• Metso agreed to acquire Brazilian bronze alloy component maker Italbronze — a supplier of more than 30 years with about 470 employees — to secure crushing aftermarket capacity and supply chain resilience.
• Alkane Resources extended the gold-antimony system at its Nagambie project in Victoria, intersecting high-grade mineralisation 115m below the previously known extent with true widths up to 32m.
• Gold Hydrogen plans commercial helium production on South Australia's Yorke Peninsula within 18 months, targeting a global shortage after strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan removed about a third of world supply.

Gold & Macro

• Northern Star completed the tie-in of its expanded KCGM plant, sold 363,891oz at an AISC of $3,217/oz in the September quarter and maintained FY27 guidance of 1.5–1.65Moz at $3,050–3,450/oz, with production weighted to the second half.
• Regis Resources ended September with $1.28 billion in cash and bullion after $265 million of operating cash flow and a $51 million break fee from Vault Minerals, and cautioned that the Federal Court's invalidation of the McPhillamys Section 10 order does not authorise development.
• Rox Resources reported its Youanmi processing plant is 39% complete with ore stockpiling under way, after drawing an initial $90.2 million on $350 million of debt facilities and lifting the resource to 2.195Moz.
• RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said inflation is "materially worse" than expected and the board faces "hard choices" on rates, lifting market-implied odds of a November 3 increase to 41%.
• Morgan Stanley deepened its Australian housing forecast to a 10–15% price fall by end-2027, while MA Financial suspended redemptions on $2.3 billion of property lending funds and ASIC opened a formal investigation into Gemi Investments over $150 million of frozen capital.