Daily Overview: 11 September 2026

All eyes are on tonight's US CPI print at 22:30 AEST. Consensus expects core inflation to ease to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.5%, while headline holds at 3.4%. A hot number will pour fuel on the bond market fire — 10-year yields are already at 4.85% and oil is above $US101 — and could force the Fed's hand. For the AUD, a softer CPI would take pressure off the RBA, but don't bet on it: traders are pricing a 79% chance of a fourth straight hike at the September 28-29 meeting. The bond yield spike is doing the RBA's tightening for it, but not enough to stop the board.

Watch for further fallout from the Bessent buyback disappointment — the Treasury's $6 billion repurchase was smaller than expected, and yields are screaming. Commodity markets are also on edge: oil's surge past $US100 is stoking inflation fears, while gold miners are riding a wave of M&A and resource upgrades. Today's UK GDP and industrial production data are secondary, but the US CPI is the main event. If core inflation surprises to the upside, expect another rough session for equities and a firmer USD.

International

Economic Releases

• The ECB hiked its deposit rate to 2.5% and main rate to 2.65% as expected, with Lagarde's press conference offering little new direction.
• US core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the 0.3% consensus, while headline PPI matched expectations at 0.4%. Initial jobless claims came in at 206K, slightly above the 205K forecast.
• Existing home sales fell 2% month-on-month to 3.98 million, in line with consensus, but the prior month was revised down.
• EIA crude stocks drew down just 0.391 million barrels versus a 1.6 million barrel draw expected, while gasoline stocks built 1.269 million barrels against a forecast draw — a bearish signal for refined products.

Gold & Precious Metals

• St Barbara agreed to sell a 40% stake in its Simberi gold project in PNG to Chinese state-backed Lingbao Gold for $453 million, taking total proceeds to $942 million and lifting shares 15%. The deal is framed under China's Belt and Road Initiative.
• Westgold outlined a fully funded path to 460,000–510,000 ounces of gold by FY29, with all-in sustaining costs falling to $2640–$3000 per ounce, driven by Murchison expansion and the Fletcher Zone at Beta Hunt.
• Catalyst Metals' Keillor resource jumped 280% to 307,000 ounces, supporting plans to lift Plutonic Gold Belt production towards 200,000 ounces annually.
• Brightstar Resources confirmed its Laverton plant remains on schedule for first gold in June 2027, with 75,000 ounces per year targeted over an initial six-year mine life.
• Ora Banda started underground development at Waihi, with first ore due mid-2027, while Rox Resources kicked off a drilling campaign at Youanmi targeting extensions to the United North ore system.
• Forrestania Resources secured supply and haulage agreements for its Edna May restart, including a five-year sodium cyanide deal with Orica and an ore purchase agreement with First Au.

Energy & Oil

• Oil surged past $US101 a barrel on Middle East attacks, while US 10-year yields hit 4.86% after Treasury Secretary Bessent's smaller-than-expected bond buyback disappointed markets. The ASX suffered its worst day in months.
• Woodside lost executive vice president Daniel Kalms, a key figure behind its $24 billion Louisiana LNG project, raising concerns about delivery as the project is only 30% complete.
• An independent audit found Inpex has taken "significant steps" to rectify emissions under-reporting at Ichthys, but errors remain, including incomplete mercury reporting. The company still faces prosecution.
• The Albanese government left open the possibility of excluding Western Australia from its national gas reservation scheme, with LNG producers required to set aside up to 20% of exports from January 2028.
• One Nation will support a Greens bill to permanently ban fracking in South Australia's South East, an unlikely alliance that could block Labor's attempt to lift the moratorium.
• Transgrid sharply revised up electricity demand forecasts, with data centres expected to account for two-thirds of consumption growth by 2035. Nvidia plans to double Australian compute capacity by 2027, adding 2GW of AI data centre demand.

Base Metals & Critical Minerals

• Rio Tinto signed a project agreement with the Nyangumarta People for its Winu copper-gold project in WA, advancing towards first copper by 2030, though a final investment decision is still pending.
• Zijin Mining awarded Weir an order for two ENDURON HPGRs at its Akyem gold mine in Ghana, aimed at debottlenecking the comminution circuit and improving energy efficiency.
• Antimony prices have surged, prompting Larvotto Resources to resume production at the Hillgrove mine in NSW, targeting 5,000 tonnes annually — a significant step in diversifying supply away from China.
• Tungsten Mining's Watershed project in Queensland received all primary approvals, including its Environmental Authority, with a definitive feasibility study due in October and first production targeted for H1 2027.