Daily Overview: 30 July 2026

All eyes are on tonight's US core PCE print (22:30 AEST) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Forecasts point to a sharp deceleration to 0.1% month-on-month from 0.3%, which would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold at 3.75% and potentially open the door to cuts later this year. A soft number would be a clear positive for risk assets and the AUD, especially after yesterday's weaker-than-expected Australian CPI already slashed RBA rate-hike bets to near zero. Don't sleep on the US GDP advance print either — a 2.2% annualised pace would confirm the economy is still chugging along, but any downside surprise could reignite recession fears.

Locally, building permits data at 11:30 AEST is the only domestic release, with the market expecting a slight improvement to -0.9% month-on-month from -1.1%. That's a second-tier number, but in a housing-constrained economy, any sign of life in construction approvals matters for materials demand. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England is universally expected to hold at 3.75% (21:00 AEST), but the vote split and accompanying Monetary Policy Report will be scoured for hints on the timing of the first cut. Eurozone GDP flash prints (19:00 AEST) are forecast to show a modest recovery from -0.2% to +0.2% quarter-on-quarter — a miss would compound the region's growth headache.

Commodity markets remain hostage to Middle East geopolitics. Oil bounced 3% overnight after Saudi Arabia joined US strikes on Iranian targets, but the broader trend is still down on hopes of de-escalation. Iron ore and copper are riding the Rio and MinRes earnings wave, but the semiconductor rout in tech is a reminder that the AI-driven demand narrative can wobble. Watch for any follow-through in base metals if US data surprises.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• Australian June CPI came in softer than expected: headline inflation fell to 3.8% year-on-year (consensus 4.0%) and monthly CPI printed -0.1% (consensus +0.2%). The RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure also undershot at 3.6% year-on-year (consensus 3.7%), slashing the probability of an August rate hike from 21% to just 3%.
• The US Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.75% as widely expected, with Chair Powell's press conference offering no surprises. The market is now pricing a cut by year-end.
• US EIA crude oil stocks plunged by 7.167 million barrels, far exceeding the -1.3 million consensus draw, signalling tight supply despite the recent price rout.

Iron Ore & Steel

• Rio Tinto reported a strong first-half result with underlying EBITDA up 28% to $US14.8 billion, driven by a record copper EBITDA of $US5.7 billion (up 84%). The company declared a $US2.11 per share interim dividend, up 43%, and maintained Pilbara iron ore guidance of 323–338 million tonnes.
• Mineral Resources delivered record iron ore and lithium production, with Onslow Iron shipping a quarterly record 9.6 million wet metric tonnes and reaching an annualised run rate of ~38.4 million wmt. Free-on-board costs of $52/wmt came in below guidance.
• Pilbara Ports set a new annual trade record of 804.1 million tonnes, with iron ore exports rising 4% to 759.4 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as the world's largest bulk export port.

Gold & Lithium

• Vault Minerals closed a record financial year with 336,540 ounces of gold production and strong cash flow, and is advancing a merger with Genesis Minerals to create a top-20 global gold producer targeting 600,000–700,000 ounces annually.
• Ramelius Resources reported a strong June quarter with ore production at the Never Never mine more than doubling to 115,000 tonnes at 5.95 g/t, contributing to full-year output of 192,182 ounces — the sixth consecutive year of meeting guidance.
• Liontown Resources missed analyst expectations despite a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase in lithium sales to 108,500 tonnes, sending shares down 7%. The company is targeting 390,000–440,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate by 2027. In contrast, Mineral Resources beat market expectations with record lithium sales, and IGO announced its first dividend in two years on improved lithium prices.

Oil & Gas

• Woodside Energy reported a 28% jump in June quarter operating revenue to $4.19 billion, driven by a 35% rise in average realised prices to $85/barrel, despite a 9% production decline. The company flagged steel supply disruptions for its Louisiana LNG project due to the Strait of Hormuz blockage but said alternative logistics are being pursued.
• Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping 5.1% to $83.88 a barrel, on optimism over US-Iran peace talks and the US pausing daily strikes. However, tensions remain after Saudi Arabia joined US forces in rare combined strikes on Iranian targets, sending Brent back up 3% in after-hours trade.
• Taiwan suspended spot purchases of LNG from Papua New Guinea in response to PNG closing Taiwan's de-facto embassy, though a long-term contract for 1.2 million tonnes per year remains intact. Analysts say the impact on PNG is limited given the tight global LNG market.