Daily Overview: 23 July 2026

Oil markets remain the dominant force this morning, with Brent crude surging to near two-month highs as the US-Iran conflict enters its tenth day and Houthi threats force tankers to reroute from the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. The risk premium is real and growing — any escalation targeting Iran’s nuclear sites would send prices significantly higher. Watch for further disruption to shipping and its flow-on effects to energy costs for Australian miners.

On the domestic front, the ASX is set to open higher after a tech-led rebound on Wall Street, but the real action will be in resources. Wesfarmers’ $1.4 billion Mount Holland lithium expansion signals that the majors are betting on a sustained recovery in lithium prices — expect more M&A chatter in the sector. Gold remains a standout, with Ramelius’ spectacular 996 g/t hit and Forrestania’s hostile bid for Zenith keeping the spotlight on the yellow metal. The Queensland government’s review of the Financial Provisioning Scheme is also one to watch: if it delivers genuine reform, it could unlock significant capital for exploration and development.

Oil & Geopolitics

• Oil prices jumped 2% as the US and Iran extended military strikes to a 10th day, with President Trump vowing to intensify airstrikes including on a nuclear site; Houthi threats in the Red Sea forced tankers to turn around, further tightening supply.
• The Strait of Hormuz disruption has delayed Queensland’s Triple Zero phone system upgrade, with third-party service provider delays attributed to the conflict — a reminder of how far-reaching supply chain impacts can be.
• Citi’s top global economist warned that the Strait of Hormuz closure, combined with potential El Niño-driven food price rises, poses a twin threat to global growth, though the economy is expected to absorb the shocks.

Gold & Precious Metals

• Ramelius Resources reported exceptional high-grade gold intersections, including 3.38m at 996 g/t at Never Never and 20.2m at 40.7 g/t at Galaxy, supporting a pathway to 500,000 oz annual production by 2029-30.
• Forrestania Resources faces opposition from a major investor in its takeover bid for Zenith Minerals, with the dispute heading to court — the outcome could set a precedent for gold M&A in a rising price environment.
• Alkane Resources declared its first dividend in nearly 60 years, citing record operating cash flows and a strong balance sheet; fund managers expect other gold miners to follow suit given recent CGT reforms.

Lithium & Battery Minerals

• Wesfarmers and SQM committed $1.4 billion to double production at Mount Holland, including a new concentrator and ore sorter, with first output expected in 2030 — a clear vote of confidence in long-term lithium demand despite recent price volatility.
• The lithium bulls are quietly running again, with improved prices, renewed investment by Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals, and stronger demand for energy storage driving a more constructive outlook.
• Samsara Eco, the plastics recycling start-up backed by Woolworths and Lululemon, plans to expand into recovering critical minerals from waste electronics, signalling a new frontier for the sector.

Copper & Base Metals

• Aeris Resources more than quadrupled its ore reserve at Tritton to 10 million tonnes grading 1.7% copper, containing ~180,000 tonnes of copper, driven by maiden reserves at Constellation and the Mallee Bull acquisition.
• AIC Mines appointed Glencore’s former head of copper for Africa, Clint Donkin, as its new CEO, targeting a doubling of copper production to 25,000–27,000 tonnes by 2028-29.
• Terra Metals reported the thickest mineralised zone yet at its Dante Project in Western Australia — 448m of continuous PGE, copper and nickel mineralisation — with a maiden resource estimate targeted for late 2026.

Macro & Policy

• Australia’s minerals sector paid $432 billion in company taxes and royalties over the past decade, with FY24 payments at $63.8 billion; the sector remains the largest taxpayer, accounting for over a quarter of all company tax.
• Queensland Minister Dale Last announced a full review of the Financial Provisioning Scheme, aiming to remove barriers to investment while maintaining environmental safeguards; public consultation begins in September.
• The Albanese government ruled out a gas tax in the near future, despite internal Labor support, citing fuel security concerns and the need to maintain relationships with regional trading partners.
• A wave of job cuts is expected across ASX-listed companies, with Goldman Sachs flagging 16 firms where cost-cutting on salaries will be a key focus amid rising wages, energy costs and technology expenses.