Daily Overview: 18 August 2026

The market's focus today shifts squarely to the US housing sector, with housing starts and building permits due at 22:30 AEST. Consensus expects a sharp pullback in starts (-4.7% month-on-month) after last month's outsized 19% surge, which would confirm the US housing recovery remains uneven. Watch the ADP weekly employment change and industrial production figures for further clues on US economic momentum — a miss on either could firm up rate cut expectations and provide a tailwind for gold and base metals.

Locally, the Westpac consumer confidence data at 10:30 AEST is forecast to deteriorate further, with the index expected to fall to 81.7 from 83.9. That would mark another leg down in a series that has been hammered by rate hikes and cost-of-living pressures — a soft print reinforces the RBA's dilemma and keeps pressure on the housing-sensitive names that dominated yesterday's earnings headlines. The ZEW economic sentiment readings out of Europe this evening are worth a glance, but the real action for commodity traders is in the US data flow.

The earnings season rush continues, and yesterday's results set a cautious tone. NAB's warning on housing credit growth, Aurizon's weak coal outlook, and JB Hi-Fi's consumer spending commentary all point to a slowing domestic economy. BlueScope's stellar result, driven by US tariffs, was the standout — expect further commentary on steel tariffs and the Whyalla bid to develop. Keep an eye on any further developments in the Middle East, which continues to cast a shadow over risk assets.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• China's economic data missed badly across the board. Industrial production rose just 4.5% year-on-year (consensus 5.0%), retail sales growth collapsed to 0.6% (consensus 1.5%), and fixed asset investment fell 6.7% year-to-date (consensus -6.2%). The continued deterioration in Chinese demand is a major headwind for iron ore, base metals, and bulk exporters.
• US Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 20.6 (consensus 11), signalling a sharp improvement in New York-area factory activity. The NAHB Housing Market Index also ticked up to 35, though it remains at deeply depressed levels.
• Canadian inflation ran hot, with headline CPI at 3.0% year-on-year (consensus 2.9%) and core at 2.3% (consensus 2.2%), reinforcing the case for the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady.

Iron Ore, Steel & Mining Services

• BlueScope Steel delivered a stunning result, with net profit soaring 857% to $802 million, driven by a doubling of North American earnings to $1.03 billion on the back of US tariffs. The company scrapped its US demerger plans, lifted dividends, and guided first-half earnings above analyst expectations. Its Australian division remains under pressure from cheap Chinese imports.
• Aurizon's shares plunged 9% after the rail operator warned of lower coal haulage earnings this year, with contracted volumes falling to 211 million tonnes from 231 million. CEO Andrew Harding cited Australian miners scaling back production and losing market share to Russia and Indonesia.
• Pilbara Ports handled 63.8 million tonnes in July, down 1% year-on-year, with iron ore exports from Port Hedland falling 4% to 44.2 million tonnes. The softness aligns with China's weakening industrial data.
• Rox Resources reported high-grade underground drilling results at its Youanmi Gold Mine, reinforcing expansion potential beyond the current mine plan, and signed a 10-year power purchase agreement with Pacific Energy for a hybrid power station.
• Aurelia Metals' Peak Gold Mines received final approval to lift processing throughput from 800,000 tpa to 1.2 million tpa, with the plant expansion on schedule for Q1 FY27 commissioning.
• Schlam marked a manufacturing milestone with its 200th Barracuda bucket produced at its Waroona facility, with the latest unit destined for Rio Tinto's Western Range Mine.

Macro & Policy

• NAB flagged rising customer stress as third-quarter cash profit rose 4% to $1.83 billion but missed expectations. CEO Andrew Irvine warned housing credit growth will slow to just 2.5% by 2027, with home loan applications down sharply across the major banks. NAB shares fell 3.5%.
• The RBA warned on state government debt, saying rising infrastructure spending and public sector expansion could constrain fiscal capacity and pose risks to financial stability, with semis issuance expected to remain high.
• Former Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson warned that proposed deep cuts to migration would damage an economy already weakened by budget deficits and inflation, arguing for high-quality migration to support fiscal sustainability.
• Scott Morrison defended the 2018 WA GST deal as pro-mining, arguing the Commonwealth gained the largest share of the windfall from high iron ore prices. The Productivity Commission's interim report recommended scrapping the deal, citing costs exceeding $6 billion annually.
• The NSW government announced data centres must source at least 40% of their electricity from wind power, a policy designed to boost struggling renewables projects but which industry warns will increase costs and affect investment attractiveness.
• Google is preparing a $5 billion Kangaroo bond — its first Australian dollar debt issuance — to fund AI infrastructure spending, in what could become the largest corporate bond sale in Australian history.