Daily Overview: 4 November 2026

The RBA's fifth hike of 2026 landed in line with consensus — 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent, a 6–3 split — so the real news is the revised forecasts: trimmed mean inflation above 3 per cent until end-2027, headline inflation peaking at 4.5 per cent, and growth slowing to 1.6 per cent. Markets took it as the last hike, rallying bonds and knocking the Australian dollar lower. Treat that as a bet, not a conclusion. With the domestic data slate behind us, the AUD trades offshore from here.

Today's calendar is thin until Europe: China's RatingDog services PMI at 11:45 AEDT is forecast at 51.5, a shade softer than 51.6, which matters for bulk commodity sentiment. The euro-area inflation flash at 20:00 AEDT is the day's headline number, expected to accelerate to 4 per cent from 3.8 per cent while core holds at 2.5 per cent — enough to let the ECB look through it. The US slate arrives after the Australian close: ADP employment at 23:15 AEDT is forecast at 69K against 90K previously, a cooling print that would reinforce the "Fed done" narrative; US and Canadian trade balances follow at 23:30, ISM Services at 01:00 (54.8 versus 54.9, no meaningful shift), and EIA crude and gasoline inventories at 01:30. Watch the inventories closely — crude drew 1.892 million barrels last week while gasoline built 3.87 million, and with Trump again weighing strikes on Iran, any drawdown will find a twitchy market. It is also US midterm election day, with polls and prediction markets leaning towards a Democratic sweep of Congress. Fund managers read that as a negative for the unfettered AI data centre build-out and, by extension, for the power and copper demand thesis sitting underneath it.

On the corporate side, Woodside's Sydney investor briefing is the one to circle. Analysts expect the company's first dividend policy change in more than a decade — most likely a shift to free cash flow-linked payouts — alongside an update on a Louisiana LNG selldown following the QatarEnergy deal, and the usual pressure on Browse. Further out, Anthropic's Nasdaq float, targeting a valuation of US$1.5–2 trillion, is now the single biggest test of the AI trade. After a 1.4 per cent drop in the Nasdaq 100, a 21 per cent slide in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index since 6 October, and US$895 billion of committed compute spending against a still loss-making business, anyone with exposure to data centre and grid build-out should be watching as closely as the venture funds.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• The RBA raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent, an 18-year high and its fifth hike of 2026, on a 6–3 board split; the move matched consensus but the Statement on Monetary Policy revised trimmed mean inflation above 3 per cent until end-2027, headline inflation to 4.5 per cent by December and growth down to 1.6 per cent. Governor Michele Bullock conceded it "feels like a recession" for many households.
• US JOLTS job openings beat sharply at 7.523 million against 7.10 million consensus, and factory orders rose 1.8 per cent versus 1.2 per cent expected — two upside surprises that complicate the soft-landing trade ahead of today's ADP print.
• The bond market treated the hike as the peak: the three-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.78 per cent and the 10-year 5 basis points to 5.10 per cent, the Australian dollar softened, and markets priced only a one-in-three chance of a further move to 5.10 per cent.

Energy & LNG

• ADNOC's XRG agreed to buy Shell's 16.7 per cent stake in the North West Shelf for at least US$1.45 billion ($2.08 billion), plus a contingent payment tied to a Browse final investment decision — a belated entry into Australian LNG for the failed Santos bidder, as NWS shifts from integrated producer to third-party processor.
• Woodside is weighing its first dividend policy change since at least 2013, with analysts tipping a move to free cash flow-linked payouts at this week's Sydney investor briefing; the review coincides with an unfilled chair succession and expectations of a Louisiana LNG selldown.
• CASA immediately grounded Sky High Helicopters, trading as Fortescue Helicopters, across WA and Queensland over a "deliberately and systemically non-compliant safety culture", affecting a contractor whose client list includes FMG, Rio Tinto, Glencore and Hancock Prospecting.
• Victorian data centre investment is frozen behind a six-month backlog of decisions on about $5 billion of applications, with nine awaiting approval as the state enters caretaker mode before the 28 November election — industry groups warn investors will go elsewhere.
• Roughly 35,000 home batteries are still being installed monthly despite May's subsidy cuts, with more than 550,000 systems subsidised at a cost above $5 billion so far, adding pressure on Treasurer Jim Chalmers to find savings in the December update.

Macro & Policy

• CBA now forecasts Sydney house prices to fall 16 per cent peak-to-trough — the largest decline in the 45-year history of the series — with national prices down about 14 per cent and Perth and Brisbane down 18 per cent; AMP's Shane Oliver expects a 15 per cent top-to-bottom fall.
• Chalmers rejected blame for the rate hike and promised fresh savings in the mid-year update, but roughly $11 billion of new costs since May — about $6 billion of it additional debt interest — must be offset before any net saving is delivered.
• Fund managers are positioned for a Democratic clean sweep in the US midterms, holding cash, buying insurance against a Wall Street sell-off and trimming US-specific ETF flows; the key risk they flag is Trump's reaction, with tech stocks most exposed.

Corporate & Markets

• Austal is preparing to sell its US business including the Mobile shipyard in Alabama after the Pentagon ended contract renegotiations; Hanwha has bid about US$1.2 billion against Wildcat Equity Partners' $1.87 billion, with any deal needing approval from 20 per cent shareholder Tattarang.
• Canva's internal figures showed annualised revenue of about US$3.69 billion in late October, flat on the start of the year and well short of its US$5.2 billion goal, with monthly active users down about 12 million year-on-year and layoffs expected within days.
• Jon Adgemis was examined in the Federal Court over the $1.8 billion collapse of Public Hospitality, unable to recall which of his 200-plus companies held bank accounts, while the ATO has alleged sham deals including $1.1 billion in claimed construction spending used to generate $78 million in GST refunds.
• Anthropic's updated filing revealed US$895.4 billion in committed infrastructure spend — about US$70 billion due within 12 months — against third-quarter revenue of almost US$17 billion, with the company warning growth cannot continue at comparable rates.
• GQG Partners' Rajiv Jain stood by his mid-year pivot from AI bear to bull after the firm's US equity fund fell about 10 per cent in October and the stock hit an all-time low of 88¢, with funds under management down from a US$172.9 billion February peak to US$149.2 billion.