Daily Overview: 13 August 2026

RBA Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent are both on the speaking calendar today (09:30 and 10:15 AEST respectively). After Bullock's blunt rate-rise warning earlier this week, markets will parse every word for a shift in tone — but with economists largely dismissing the hawkishness as jawboning, the risk is that any softening triggers a relief rally in rate-sensitive sectors. The AUD will also be sensitive to any commentary on the housing downturn and the federal budget's impact on credit growth.

Overseas, the focus shifts to US PPI and initial jobless claims tonight (22:30 AEST). PPI is expected to rebound from -0.3% to +0.2% m/m, while jobless claims are forecast to edge up to 202K from 199K — neither should move the needle much, but a hot PPI print would complicate the Fed's easing narrative. UK GDP and industrial production are due this afternoon, with quarterly growth expected to slow to 0.4% from 0.6%, though industrial production is forecast to bounce back from -0.5% to +0.2% — a mixed picture that could weigh on the pound.

Domestically, the big event is the formal announcement of the $2.5 billion Tomago aluminium smelter bailout, with the PM and NSW Premier expected to visit the site. The deal — funded by taxpayers and Rio Tinto — will be scrutinised for its cost-sharing details and the implications for energy policy. Also watch for continued fallout from yesterday's earnings deluge: CBA's warning on housing credit growth and AGL's profit downgrade will keep the banks and energy names in focus.

Australia

International

Economic Releases

• US EIA crude oil stocks surged by 17.4 million barrels against a consensus draw of -1.4 million — the largest build in months, likely to pressure oil prices and weigh on energy stocks.
• The US monthly budget deficit widened to $432 billion versus a $346 billion consensus, underscoring the deteriorating fiscal picture and adding to concerns about Treasury funding needs.
• US core CPI rose 0.2% m/m as expected, with the annual rate easing to 2.5% from 2.6% — in line with forecasts and unlikely to alter the Fed's patient stance.

Mining & Metals

• The federal and NSW governments have agreed to a $2.5 billion, 10-year bailout for Rio Tinto's Tomago aluminium smelter, with Rio contributing $1.1 billion for upgrades and $100 million for decarbonisation. The deal, to be announced today, aims to secure the smelter's future beyond 2028 and underpin nearly 3 GW of new renewable generation.
• Polymetals Resources reported further high-grade silver, lead, zinc and gold intersections at its Endeavor mine in NSW, including 39m at 502 g/t silver, confirming continuity around the historic subsidence zone ahead of an initial resource estimate.
• Beacon Minerals delivered high-grade gold results from drilling at Iguana in WA, including 13.3m at 16.32 g/t gold, which will feed into an updated resource estimate due in Q1 FY26/27.
• Medallion Metals selected Macmahon Underground as preferred tenderer for a $240 million underground mining contract at Ravensthorpe, with box-cut excavation scheduled for August.
• Maritana Minerals secured key approvals for its Black Swan Processing Hub in WA, targeting first gold in H2 2027.

Energy & Policy

• AGL Energy's underlying profit slipped to $631 million from $642 million, narrowly missing expectations, and the company flagged further declines ahead on softer wholesale power prices and higher gas costs. It also raised investment in its retail transformation program, with savings delayed to FY2030.
• Hancock Energy's $850 million Belisama gas project in WA faces uncertainty over Labor's proposed domestic gas reservation scheme, potentially delaying a final investment decision scheduled for the September quarter.
• NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe conceded the rapid renewables rollout will lead to mistakes, after ACEREZ destroyed an Aboriginal heritage site in the Central-West Orana REZ. She announced a $1.4 million grant program for farmers in the zone.
• Forestry Australia criticised the native forest carbon credits method, claiming it over-credits by 40-100% and undermines the integrity of the ACCU scheme.

Macro & Corporate

• Commonwealth Bank reported a 7% rise in cash profit to $11 billion, but CEO Matt Comyn warned that housing credit growth is slowing sharply — mortgage applications are down 15% since the federal budget, with investor loans down 28%. The bank expects total credit growth to slow to 5-7% in 2027.
• RBA Governor Bullock's hawkish rate-rise warning failed to sway economists from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and others, who see rates as peaked and expect cuts in 2027. Market pricing still implies a ~60% chance of a hike before Christmas.
• Seek warned of mid-single digit volume declines in FY27 due to a slowing economy and rising unemployment, missing profit guidance and triggering a 15% share sell-off.
• KPMG's governance crisis deepened, with revelations it paid over $500,000 to a tax division whistleblower and hired PR and legal support for ousted partners ahead of Friday's parliamentary hearing.
• GQG Partners saw over $6 billion in outflows in July despite outperforming benchmarks, while Canva shares are being offered at a 28.5% discount to its $60 billion valuation on the secondary market.