Daily Overview: 26 August 2026

The ASX is set to edge higher at the open, following a mixed session on Wall Street where the Dow rose but the S&P 500 slipped on tech weakness. Australian inflation at 11:30 AEST is the day's key event — consensus is 3.3% YoY, down from 3.8%, with trimmed mean at 3.5%. But yesterday's RBA minutes showed several board members are ready to hike again if the market surprises. A hot print will make a September rate rise near-certain. Construction work done (consensus 0.5% QoQ, down from 3.4%) is also due.

US GDP second estimate at 22:30 AEST is expected to slow to 1.5% from 2.1%, with core PCE at 0.2% MoM. The GDP price index is forecast to jump to 6.3% from 3.6% — a significant inflation signal that could rattle markets. EIA crude stocks at 23:30 AEST are expected to show a 1.9M barrel drawdown after last week's 4.4M build.

Woodside's pivot away from clean energy targets will keep reshaping the energy sector. The market is repricing for a world where returns trump decarbonisation, and the Safeguard Mechanism review is the next big battleground.

Economic Releases

• RBA minutes from the August meeting showed several board members believe another rate rise may be needed to tame inflation, citing upside risks from the Iran war, AI infrastructure investment, and stagnant productivity. Rates were left at 4.35%.
• US consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August, below the 90.2 consensus, while new home sales slumped 10.5% MoM against a -1.3% consensus — a clear sign of housing market stress.
• German Ifo Business Climate beat expectations at 88.8 vs 87.2 consensus, signalling the eurozone's largest economy is stabilising.

Macro & Policy

• Trump threatened further tariffs on Canada and escalated sanctions on Iran, with Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing "Operation Economic Outcast" to sever Iran's economic lifelines. China warned it would retaliate if US sanctions target its trade with Tehran.
• The Productivity Commission's interim GST report called the 2018 WA deal a "costly mistake" costing $23 billion, drawing sharp rebukes from the PM and WA premier.
• Australia's migration debate needs a national summit to move beyond the numbers, according to an opinion piece.

Energy & Coal

• Woodside Energy dropped its Scope 3 emissions target and clean energy goals under new CEO Liz Westcott, placing its US ammonia business under strategic review. First-half underlying profit rose 7% to $1.33 billion.
• NSW coal exports rose 6% to nearly 162 million tonnes in FY2026, driven by stronger Asian demand from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Thermal coal exports are 80% higher than two decades ago.
• AEMO warned that data centre power surges and renewable delays could threaten grid reliability, with data centres expected to grow from 3% to 13% of power supply by 2035.
• The wind industry is facing a "drought" of new projects, with only 4 of 31 wind projects under the Capacity Investment Scheme reaching financial close.
• Australian aluminium smelters are lobbying the government to relax Safeguard Mechanism rules, warning that stringent emissions targets could force closures and export emissions and jobs.

Gold & Base Metals

• Ramelius Resources reported a 79% surge in ore reserves to 4.3Moz and a 17% increase in resources to 14Moz, with exploration adding ~1.8Moz at an average cost of $55/oz.
• Westgold Resources is targeting a 61% throughput expansion at its Meekatharra hub, with a $100 million brownfields project that could add ~47,000 ounces of annual gold production.
• Brightstar Resources intersected more than 500m of mineralised tonalite at its Sandstone Gold project, with assays expected in late September.
• Carnaby Resources increased its Greater Duchess copper-gold resource by 10% to 482,800 tonnes of copper equivalent, while Alcoa broke ground on a gallium recovery project at Wagerup.
• BHP overtook CBA as the ASX's most valuable company, with shares hitting a record above $68 on copper price strength. Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott called for greater collaboration with rivals like BHP.
• Fortescue suspended an executive at the centre of a sexual harassment investigation, reversing an earlier decision to allow the senior leader to keep working.

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