Australia’s sharemarket finished in the green, although a hotter than anticipated inflation figure took the shine off a strong day of trading. ($TA)
Guzman y Gomez added 4.1 per cent to $22.87 as JPMorgan upgraded the fast food stock from “underweight” to “neutral”, citing reduced valuation pressure from a share price decline to its IPO level and a de-rating across the global quick service restaurant sector.
DroneShield rose 8.5 per cent to $2.17 in a second straight day of strong gains. The company reported a $5.2 million European military contract this week as chief executive Oleg Vornik calmed investors about dumping $50 million worth of shares this month.
Electro Optic Systems added 3.6 per cent to $4.61 even as the Federal Court handed down a $4 million penalty from the company admitting to breaching its continuous disclosure obligations.
National Storage REIT jumped 19.5 per cent to $2.70 after it received an unsolicited, non-binding takeover offer from a consortium of Brookfield Property Group and GIC Investments.
US
Stocks Hit Session Highs On Report Hassett Emerges As Trump’s Next Fed Chair Pick (ZH)
The largest American public health-care companies outperformed other industries in the third quarter, as higher new and specialty drug use, continued demand for weight-loss drugs and strong hospital visit trends boosted earnings. ($BBG)
Deere & Co.’s first outlook for the year ahead fell short of expectations as uncertainly continues to surround the timing for a recovery in the US farm economy. ($BBG)
U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Wednesday, as investors priced in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and awaited economic data for greater clarity over the health of the world’s largest economy. (TR)
Crypto
Crypto-hoarding companies are ditching their holdings in a bid to prop up their sinking share prices, as the craze for “digital asset treasury” businesses unravels in the face of a $1tn cryptocurrency rout. ($FT)
Economy
China’s property market is bracing for a worsening crisis at state-backed China Vanke Co., as the builder struggles to convince investors it can avoid default in the months ahead without clearer signs of government support. ($BBG)
Residential construction picks up (+4.2%qtr), while non-residential (+3.7%qtr) and public infrastructure (+3.9%qtr) activity are showing signs of recovering.
Inflation has climbed to 3.8% in the year to October, from 3.6% the month before, as Jim Chalmers flagged he could announce further energy bill subsidies for households in the upcoming midyear budget. (RBA, $AFR)
Eurozone government bond yields could take some cues from the impact of Wednesday’s U.K. budget on U.K. government bonds, or gilts. “The U.K. budget should dominate the headlines”.
The Japanese economy may need the stimulus, but investors clearly have questions on whether capital markets and Tokyo can handle the additional spending and the conflicting dynamics between lawmakers and policymakers.
U.S. Treasury yields edge higher in Asian trade even as odds of a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve are growing.
French government bonds, or OATs, are expected to continue under-performing next year relative to the broader eurozone government bond yield spread complex.
Fastwave Medical, a promising U.S. Healthcare startup, is battling for survival as it’s largest shareholder is blocking every fundraising attempt they are attempting. ($WSJ)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates further on Wednesday in an effort to spur recovery in an economy that for now remains moribund, with unemployment at its highest level in nearly a decade. ($WSJ)
UK bonds and the pound whipsawed ahead of a UK government budget after key fiscal forecasts were published earlier than expected. ($BBG, report)
Business
Google has reasserted itself as a major AI competitor through its advanced Gemini 3 model, growing cloud business, and increasingly competitive custom AI chips (TPUs), dispelling earlier concerns that it was falling behind OpenAI and other rivals in the AI race. ($BBG)
Meta Platforms is in talks to use chips made by Google in its artificial-intelligence efforts, a step toward diversifying away from its reliance on Nvidia, according to people familiar with the matter. ($WSJ)
AirTrunk chief executive Robin Khuda says his $24 billion data centre business is trying to invest in water recycling in Australia but there has been little uptake from the utilities companies and the federal government to assist in the process. ($AFR)
Amazon Web Services is making a major push into government-focused artificial intelligence and supercomputing, announcing plans to build the first AI- and HPC-dedicated cloud infrastructure designed specifically for U.S. federal agencies, according to Amazon’s PR. (AMZN)
Politics
The Albanese government will need to cut 7000 public service jobs every year in order for the budget’s wage forecasts to add up, despite Labor ruling out job cuts, says economist Chris Richardson. ($AFR)
Taiwan unveiled a special sweeping $60 billion defence budget on Wednesday, accelerating the island’s military build up amid an increasingly aggressive China and growing calls from the United States to spend more on its own security. ($AFR)
Western Australia’s lucrative mining and agriculture sectors will be jeopardised by any overhaul to its GST distribution, according to west coast industry leaders who warned the controversial deal is even integral to the state’s AUKUS defence agreement. ($AFR)
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama launched the “Office for Administrative Reform and Promotion of Efficiency,” which she said will work with the finance and internal affairs ministries to review measures such as government subsidies and special tax treatments for companies, according to The Japan Times. ($JPYT)
EU Approves €1.5BN Plan To Build Up Ukraine’s Military-Industrial Sector (AP)
Dozens of US companies have removed diversity criteria from executive pay this year amid a political backlash against DEI goals. ($FT)
Deal Flow
Foxconn Technology has secured approval to invest an additional $569 million in Wisconsin to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure, amid surging demand for AI servers from U.S. customers. ($WSJ)
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund raised about $253 million by trimming its stake in a Mecca-based property developer that’s become the kingdom’s best-performing equity listing this year. ($BBG)
Independent Research
The new Monthly CPI printed broadly as Westpac IQ team expected but stronger than market expectations so limited impact on our December quarter inflation estimates. (WIQ)
The RBNZ cut the OCR to 2.25% and signalled a neutral bias as expected. It seems likely that we have reached the bottom of the easing cycle absent further negative news. (WIQ)
Opinion
AI bubble fears are getting louder. Stocks tied to artificial intelligence continue to rise, yet every earnings cycle brings intensifying anxiety, especially around Nvidia and US tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta. Investors are scanning every signal for the earliest sign that the boom could be starting to unwind. ($FT)
Up to 3m low-skilled jobs could disappear in the UK by 2035 because of automation and AI (article, report)
AI’s insatiable appetite for electricity and thirst for water could strain the grid, raise emissions and power bills and slow down decarbonisation efforts. ($AFR)
BlackRock Inc. had ambitions to raise over $2 billion for its Asia Pacific-focused private credit strategies, but things didn’t go as planned due to leadership turnover, a thin track record, and strategies that didn’t click with investors. ($BBG)
Macquarie Dictionary announces ‘AI slop’ as its word of the year, beating out Ozempic face (TG)
State Street Investment Management APAC economist Krishna Bhimavarapu said the surprise October inflation print of 3.8 per cent reinforces that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain an extended hold.
Global deregulation is reshaping financial markets as the US, UK, and EU pursue lighter regulation to boost growth. CFA Institute warns that efficiency gains must not come at the expense of investor protection and market stability. (CFA MIA)
Digital Asset Treasury Companies Face Collapse as Crypto Premium Evaporates, Threatening Broader Market Contagion (CN)
Popular investing subreddit, wallstreetbets, calls Strategy (former Microstrategy)’s Bitcoin acquisitions a “Ponzi Scheme”. (r/wallstreetbets) [a]
A pack of hedge funds that had been targeting James Hardie in recent weeks ahead of the building materials giant’s removal from a widely followed equity index, has started to unwind their negative bets that brings an end to a lucrative trade. ($AFR)
US
US tech stocks recorded their biggest daily gain in six months on Monday, as mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month encouraged investors to “buy the dip” after a recent sell-off. ($FT)
Alphabet closed in on a $4 trillion valuation on Monday, set to become only the fourth company to enter the exclusive club, as the Google parent rides an artificial intelligence-driven rally. (TR)
Nvidia Corp. shares fell on a report that Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, suggesting the internet search leader is making headway in efforts to rival the industry’s bestselling AI accelerator. ($BBG)
Zoom issued a Q3 beat-and-raise as expanding AI tools, lower churn, and a $1B buyback boost underscored strengthening enterprise momentum. ($BBG)
Economy
Chinese exports of controlled products to Russia increased 87 percent in price from 2021 to 2024, compared to just 9 percent for shipments elsewhere. ($FT)
New car sales in Europe rose 4.9% in October as electric cars outpaced petrol and diesel registrations, European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association data showed on Tuesday. (TR, ACEA)
The UK government will promise to buy emerging chip technology from British companies in a 100 million pound ($130 million) bid to boost growth by supporting the artificial intelligence sector. ($FT)
Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push a rate cut through a divided committee at next month’s meeting even though it could draw multiple dissents. ($WSJ)
U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in September, taking a breather following a recent stretch of strong gains. (TR)
Business
Amazon is planning to invest about $15 billion in Northern Indiana to build data center campuses, the tech giant said as it looks to boost its cloud computing capacity to support booming artificial intelligence demand. (TR)
Spotify is preparing to raise US subscription prices in the first quarter of next year, according to three people familiar with the matter. ($FT)
Apple Inc. has eliminated dozens of sales roles in a bid to streamline the way it offers products to businesses, schools and governments, marking a rare layoff for the iPhone maker. ($BBG)
Mainland Chinese investors are increasing their stakes in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ahead of fiscal second-quarter earnings, betting that the strong launch of its AI tool Qwen will help fuel future growth. ($BBG)
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue growth, riding China’s AI development boom. ($BBG)
Star’s outgoing chairwoman Anne Ward said the casino giant could be privatised if the company’s financial problems don’t change, as the group confirmed it was searching for new lenders for the third time in two years. ($AFR)
Surfing champion Mick Fanning and skincare entrepreneur Zoe Foster Blake have emerged as high-profile IPO backers of Sea Forest, a seaweed cattle-feed business heading to the ASX on Wednesday in a rare listing. ($AFR)
The country’s major accounting firms are racing to deploy artificial intelligence across their businesses in the hope of slashing costs and spending less time on routine compliance and more on advice. ($AFR)
Britain’s Domino’s Pizza Group said on Tuesday that its CEO Andrew Rennie had stepped down, and would be replaced by Chief Operations Officer Nicola Frampton, on an interim basis. (TR)
AUSTRAC is considering taking action against Bendigo and Adelaide Bank after the regional lender said a secret internal investigation into its management of anti-money-laundering risks found broad failures. ($AFR)
OpenAI needs to raise at least $207bn by 2030 so it can continue to lose money, HSBC estimates. ($FT)
Currencies
Traders are piling into bets that Wednesday’s Budget will push the pound lower against the dollar, on fears that chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tax-raising measures could hurt the UK’s already-weak economic growth. ($FT)
Dealers say that the introduction of multilateral compression for US dollar/CNH cross-currency swaps at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing OTC Clear will help to relieve growing regulatory capital, margin and settlement limit pressures amid a recent boom in trading of the offshore renminbi contracts. (FXM)
Politics
United States’ Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, stated that the EU must adopt a balanced approach to technology regulations to secure US exemptions from 50 percent tariffs on EU steel and aluminum. ($FT)
American victims of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack file federal complaint accusing Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and the exchange of providing substantial assistance to Hamas and Hezbollah by concealing fund movements. ($FT)
President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order to launch a government-wide effort to build an integrated artificial intelligence platform to harness federal scientific datasets to train next-generation technologies. (TR)
In the phone call with President Trump, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly emphasised the importance of Taiwan’s return to China.
Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said on Tuesday he had “no information” about any cooperation with South Korea on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on semiconductors, adding that Taiwan was conducting talks only with the United States. (TR)
The Albanese government is targeting savings across the public service of up to $5.6 billion a year, in what experts warn could be one of the biggest cost-cutting exercises in Canberra in decades. ($AFR)
Deal Flow
Cohen & Gresser, the New York law firm known for representing Sam Bankman-Fried and Ghislaine Maxwell, is discussing a $40 million convertible note sale to private equity, potentially converting to equity and closing in early 2025. ($FT)
Amex’s $3.8B-listed business-travel spinout Global Business Travel Group is weighing a sale. ($BBG)
Dutch lender ING completed two SRTs linked to $12B of corporate loans. ($BBG)
Independent Research
Over half of shoppers have regretted a purchase or had a negative experience during the Black Friday sales. (CHOICE)
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.9pts to 87.1 driven higher for second straight week by more confidence about buying conditions ahead of Black Friday sales weekend. (RM)
Risk of mortgage stress drops to lowest since February 2023 following RBA interest rate cut in August to 3.6%. (RM)
The Westpac Nowcast measure of current activity in the Australian economy shows activity strengthened through late 2024, with growth firming into September 2025. (WBC)
Opinion
The view that the stock market is in a massive bubble and bound to crash is incorrect over the medium term. ($FT)
Bloomberg Economics analysis shows that Trump’s USD$21 Trillion investment boom is actually short trillions, with many of those investments in question. ($BBG)
The huge rally in lithium prices reversed violently over the weekend following reports that a key Chinese mine run by battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology could reopen as early as next month.
Wall Street is straining to absorb a flood of new bonds from tech companies funding their artificial intelligence investments, adding to the recent pressure in markets. ($WSJ)
Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that she sees no strong need for another interest-rate cut next month ($WSJ)
Barclays research expects risk assets to find a firmer footing and the U.S. dollar to strengthen into 2026.
The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid risk-on sentiment.
The sharemarket rebounded 1.3 per cent on Monday after investors erased nearly $40 billion from the ASX 200 late last week following a hotter than expected US jobs report that reset global rate cut expectations.
JP Morgans, Jamie Dimon, warns of more defaults in the private credit sector, following the recent default of auto parts supplier First Brands and the losses linked to the non-bank lender Tricolor.
Shares in Novo Nordisk, one of Europe’s largest listed companies, slumped on Monday after the company said that one of its diabetes drugs had failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s in late-stage trials. ($FT)
Bond rally of 2025 faces new data vacuum as waiting game begins ($BBG)
Economy
Indian bonds extended gains after the Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the latest data suggests there’s scope for an interest-rate cut. ($BBG)
US retail sales growth likely moderated a touch in September, capping an otherwise solid quarter of spending by consumers who are nonetheless frustrated by high prices and anxious about job security. ($BBG)
Japan’s new PM unveiled a $135B stimulus package ($FT)
Politics
The Victorian Labor government has blown a $50.6 billion hole in the state’s finances over the past six years, according to the state’s auditor-general.
Keir Starmer has announced a critical minerals and rare earths strategy to build resilience against China, which has a stranglehold on supplies of materials including magnets critical to everything from car doors to fridges. (UKGov)
Taxpayers face stumping up millions more dollars in bailouts for registered NDIS providers without significant pricing reforms, peak bodies warn. ($TA)
Trump administration officials have directly lobbied Australia’s United States Ambassador Kevin Rudd over the Albanese government’s plans to mandate increased local content on American streaming services, including issuing veiled threats of new or increased tariffs. ($AFR)
The EU aims to revise foreign investment rules to ensure Chinese companies contribute to local workers, technology sharing, and the European value chain rather than just accessing the market.
Australia’s four largest super funds have invested nearly $110 million in a controversial Indian oil company that has profited from refining sanctioned Russian crude and exporting the fuel into markets such as Australia, triggering calls for the funds to sell down their shareholdings. ($AFR)
China’s Premier Li Qiang has called for an international alliance for the development of rare earths, as Beijing steps up competition with Washington to control the supply chain of critical minerals. ($FT)
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been disbanded (TR)
Deal Flow
Qube has entered exclusive talks with Macquarie Asset Management after receiving a $5.20-a-share indicative takeover proposal valuing the logistics group at $11.6 billion. (TR)
Pay.com.au, the Melbourne platform that lets companies earn reward points for regular business purchases, has raised $53 million from investors to fund an expansion into the US. ($AFR)
Australia’s largest semiconductor company, Morse Micro, has hit the ground running to raise $32 million in pre-IPO funding as it eyes an ASX listing. ($AFR)
A sharp-nosed private equity player pounced on Monash IVF’s share price pain on Friday, scooping up shares in the battered fertility chain at a significant premium ahead of launching a takeover. ($AFR)
BHP Group is no longer pursuing a potential combination with Anglo American after preliminary discussions with Anglo’s board.
Totus Capital, which owns 10% of Light & Wonder is the latest hedge fund to bet on a re-rating in poker machine maker as the company prepares to move its sole listing to the ASX.
Chronosphere sold to US cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks for more than $5 billion. ($AFR)
Independent Research
The global fund management industry is on track to reach USD$200tn of assets by 2030, with private markets poised to account for more than half of revenues, according to consultancy PwC. (PwC)
Opinion
Bayer’s positive results for the asundexian medication for stroke-risk reduction in its recent clinical trial is a good thing for the company, JP Morgan analysts say in a note.
Samsung Biologics stands to benefit from U.S. legislation designed to reduce American drugmakers’ reliance on the Chinese supply chain, Sangsangin Investment & Securities analyst Talmi Lee writes in a note.
Chery is “firing on all cylinders,” with strong earnings growth expected ahead as it rolls out a new product lineup featuring appealing intelligent-vehicle technologies, Deutsche Bank analyst Bin Wang says in a note.
China’s auto sales are expected to see mild growth next year, Daiwa analysts write in a note.
BYD’s domestic revenue will likely record around 5% growth in 2026, Daiwa analysts say, noting the company plans to launch new technology to boost sales next year.
The Australian sharemarket sank for a fourth straight week to a six-month low, amid renewed AI jitters and a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that clouded the outlook for rate cuts. ($AFR)
FTSE 100 has outperformed the ASX200 by a 20% lead, reflecting it’s global composition and sector mix. ($AFR)
US stocks rebounded at the end of a week marked by erratic trading, after a top Federal Reserve official lifted Wall Street’s hopes for a December rate cut (40% chance of cute before vs 70% chance now). ($FT, PM)
Eli Lilly becomes first pharma group to join $1tn club ($FT)
Oil prices settle down at lowest in a month as US seeks Russia-Ukraine peace deal (TR)
Global banks invested $8bn in Indian lenders this year, up from $2.3bn last year and $1.4bn in 2023, driven by relaxed regulations. ($FT)
Trading volume in credit default swaps tied to AI sector debt increased to approximately $4.2 billion over a recent six-week period.
Prev-day Stock Movements
Autosports Group fell 2.1 per cent as the company struck a deal to acquire 10 Barry Bourke Motors dealerships in Victoria for about $34 million, securing a major footprint expansion and deepening relationships with luxury and premium brands.
Accent Group tumbled 12.8 per cent as the retail group downgraded its earnings expectations from soft trading and heavy discounting, dragging on sales and margins in the first months of the 2026 fiscal year.
Kogan rose 1.3 per cent as the retailer posted adjusted EBITDA of $10.1 million for the first four months of trading in the 2026 financial year, down 31.3 per cent across the period, with the decline driven by losses at its New Zealand arm.
Reece climbed 1 per cent as the plumbing and bathroom products group suffered an 18 per cent fall in earnings before interest and tax in the September quarter to $129 million.
Webjet rose 1.1 per cent to 90.5¢ as BGH Capital upped its takeover bid to 91¢ per share in cash for the shares it does not own. The offer came after Helloworld made a bid of its own earlier in the week for 90¢.
Politics
Japan-China relationship is on shaky grounds after comments about Taiwan were made from newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. ($FT, $FT)
Federal Judge Leonie Brinkema expressed worries about ordering a breakup of Google’s advertising business, calling the DOJ’s request a dramatic and hard-to-enforce change. ($FT)
Deal Flow
Race car driver and CrowdStrike founder/CEO George Kurtz agreed to acquire a 15% stake in co-owner/CEO Toto Wolff’s 30% stake in Mercedes-AMG F1 Team at a $6B valuation (TR)
Boman Group, in collaboration with JPC Group is launching a new fund to tackle the housing crisis; targeting innovations in construction, specifically modular housing, robotics, advanced building materials and tech-enabled platforms that can reshape the construction industry, improving costs and efficiency. ($AFR)
Bruce Buchanan’s $6b-plus adtech Rokt warms up investors for 2026 deal, hinting at an ASX / NASDAQ dual-listing ($AFR)
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital is preparing a stock market debut that could come early next year. (TR, $FT)
BHP has approached Anglo American in recent days to create a mining giant, aiming to disrupt the planned $57 billion combination with Teck Resources. ($AFR)
Independent Research
Westpac-DataX Card Tracker (WDCT)
The WDCT softened in the two weeks to 1st November, sitting above it’s 2025 average read of 152.9
Quarterly growth momentum is tracking around 1.9%/qtr
Despite slow-down in card activity, activity is still higher than the monthly average of 2025 suggesting that consumer’s are holding back for the second half of this year.
Discretionary spending still remains the main driver of increases / decreases in card activity. Household items has seen the biggest demand drop.
Spending across the board is increasing, with NSW and WA leading.
Retail card activity has slowed. Retail, basic food and hospitality have stayed flat, but non-food categories have seen less spending from their peak in August.
