Markets

• The huge rally in lithium prices reversed violently over the weekend following reports that a key Chinese mine run by battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology could reopen as early as next month.
• Wall Street is straining to absorb a flood of new bonds from tech companies funding their artificial intelligence investments, adding to the recent pressure in markets. ($WSJ)
• Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that she sees no strong need for another interest-rate cut next month ($WSJ)
• Barclays research expects risk assets to find a firmer footing and the U.S. dollar to strengthen into 2026.
• The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid risk-on sentiment.
• The sharemarket rebounded 1.3 per cent on Monday after investors erased nearly $40 billion from the ASX 200 late last week following a hotter than expected US jobs report that reset global rate cut expectations.
• JP Morgans, Jamie Dimon, warns of more defaults in the private credit sector, following the recent default of auto parts supplier First Brands and the losses linked to the non-bank lender Tricolor.
• Shares in Novo Nordisk, one of Europe’s largest listed companies, slumped on Monday after the company said that one of its diabetes drugs had failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s in late-stage trials. ($FT)
• Bond rally of 2025 faces new data vacuum as waiting game begins ($BBG)

Economy

• Indian bonds extended gains after the Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the latest data suggests there’s scope for an interest-rate cut. ($BBG)
• US retail sales growth likely moderated a touch in September, capping an otherwise solid quarter of spending by consumers who are nonetheless frustrated by high prices and anxious about job security. ($BBG)
• Japan’s new PM unveiled a $135B stimulus package ($FT)

Politics

• The Victorian Labor government has blown a $50.6 billion hole in the state’s finances over the past six years, according to the state’s auditor-general.
• Keir Starmer has announced a critical minerals and rare earths strategy to build resilience against China, which has a stranglehold on supplies of materials including magnets critical to everything from car doors to fridges. (UKGov)
• Taxpayers face stumping up millions more dollars in bailouts for registered NDIS providers without significant pricing reforms, peak bodies warn. ($TA)
• Trump administration officials have directly lobbied Australia’s United States Ambassador Kevin Rudd over the Albanese government’s plans to mandate increased local content on American streaming services, including issuing veiled threats of new or increased tariffs. ($AFR)
• The EU aims to revise foreign investment rules to ensure Chinese companies contribute to local workers, technology sharing, and the European value chain rather than just accessing the market.
• Australia’s four largest super funds have invested nearly $110 million in a controversial Indian oil company that has profited from refining sanctioned Russian crude and exporting the fuel into markets such as Australia, triggering calls for the funds to sell down their shareholdings. ($AFR)
• China’s Premier Li Qiang has called for an international alliance for the development of rare earths, as Beijing steps up competition with Washington to control the supply chain of critical minerals. ($FT)
• The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been disbanded (TR)

Deal Flow

• Qube has entered exclusive talks with Macquarie Asset Management after receiving a $5.20-a-share indicative takeover proposal valuing the logistics group at $11.6 billion. (TR)
• Pay.com.au, the Melbourne platform that lets companies earn reward points for regular business purchases, has raised $53 million from investors to fund an expansion into the US. ($AFR)
• Australia’s largest semiconductor company, Morse Micro, has hit the ground running to raise $32 million in pre-IPO funding as it eyes an ASX listing. ($AFR)
• A sharp-nosed private equity player pounced on Monash IVF’s share price pain on Friday, scooping up shares in the battered fertility chain at a significant premium ahead of launching a takeover. ($AFR)
• BHP Group is no longer pursuing a potential combination with Anglo American after preliminary discussions with Anglo’s board.
• Totus Capital, which owns 10% of Light & Wonder is the latest hedge fund to bet on a re-rating in poker machine maker as the company prepares to move its sole listing to the ASX.
• Chronosphere sold to US cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks for more than $5 billion. ($AFR)

Independent Research

• The global fund management industry is on track to reach USD$200tn of assets by 2030, with private markets poised to account for more than half of revenues, according to consultancy PwC. (PwC)

Opinion

• Bayer’s positive results for the asundexian medication for stroke-risk reduction in its recent clinical trial is a good thing for the company, JP Morgan analysts say in a note.
• Samsung Biologics stands to benefit from U.S. legislation designed to reduce American drugmakers’ reliance on the Chinese supply chain, Sangsangin Investment & Securities analyst Talmi Lee writes in a note.
• Chery is “firing on all cylinders,” with strong earnings growth expected ahead as it rolls out a new product lineup featuring appealing intelligent-vehicle technologies, Deutsche Bank analyst Bin Wang says in a note.
• China’s auto sales are expected to see mild growth next year, Daiwa analysts write in a note.
• BYD’s domestic revenue will likely record around 5% growth in 2026, Daiwa analysts say, noting the company plans to launch new technology to boost sales next year.