Before the Bell – 20251215

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And we’re back, the intern deleted all the spreadsheets used to model this newsletter so they had to spend the week trying to fix it.

Markets

AUS

  • S&P/ASX 200 index advanced 105.30 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 8697.30.
  • Newmont rose 5.7 per cent to $150.06.
  • Genesis Minerals 7.6 per cent to $6.90.
  • Evolution Mining 4.2 per cent to $12.76.
  • Westpac rose 1.4 per cent to $38.80.
  • National Australia Bank 1.8 per cent to $42.13.
  • Commonwealth Bank by 2.1 per cent to $155.96.
  • ANZ rose 1.2 per cent to $35.81 as former boss Shayne Elliott sues the bank after it stripped him of $13.5 million in bonuses last month.
  • Austal fell 3 per cent to $6.26 after Treasurer Jim Chalmers approved Hanwha’s bid to increase its holding in the shipbuilder from 9.9 per cent to 19.9 per cent, but set out strict conditions.
  • Scentre Group firmed 1 per cent to $4.20 after bringing in a new Dexus-managed fund as a joint venture partner for a further 25 per cent stake in Brisbane’s Westfield Chermside, at $683 million.
  • 4DMedical jumped 8.8 per cent to $2.22 after securing $30.2 million in funding via an underwriting agreement with Bell Potter Securities to ensure the exercise of all its listed options.
  • BMC Minerals jumped 25 per cent to $2.50 on its first day of trading on the ASX after the company completed a heavily oversubscribed initial public offering at $2 per share.

US

  • US tech stocks slumped on Friday as a sharp decline in Broadcom’s shares following the chipmaker’s earnings reignited investors’ nervousness about high valuations in companies linked to the artificial intelligence boom. ($FT)
  • The S&P 500 dropped 1.1 per cent. ($FT)
  • Oracle shares suffered a steep sell-off a day ago after the database company failed to meet analysts’ estimates of revenue growth. ($FT)
  • Nvidia lost 3.3 per cent.
  • Palantir fell 2.1 per cent.
  • 10yr US government bonds, rose 0.04 percentage points to 4.18 per cent as investors continued to digest the language from Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

Crypto

  • Five cryptocurrency firms received preliminary approval to perform certain banking functions from a US regulator on Friday, marking the latest step in the White House‘s embrace of what was once viewed as a risky, fringe industry.

Commodities

  • Iran has brought in fresh petrol price increases, as US sanctions force the oil-rich country to import refined fuel. ($FT)
  • Silver prices have punched through $60 per ounce for the first time amid a historic rally driven by a scarcity of supply and a surge in demand from investors. ($FT)

Economy

  • More than 9mn US student loan holders have missed at least one payment this year, as delinquencies in the $1.7tn market soar following the end of the Biden administration’s post-pandemic payments holiday. ($FT)
  • Australia will book A$20 billion ($13.3 billion) in savings in Wednesday’s mid-year budget update as the government works to offset rising spending pressures, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said. ($BBG)
  • Trump’s AI Bet Clouded by Unemployment and Inflation Fears as voters are becoming increasingly skeptical about its promise and more worried by its perils. ($BBG)
  • China’s loan growth disappointed in November with muted overall credit expansion, underlining anemic borrowing by households and businesses is still a concern weighing on the economy. ($BBG)

Business

  • Volkswagen will stop manufacturing vehicles at its site in Dresden after Tuesday, marking the first time in the carmaker’s 88-year history that it will close production in Germany. ($FT)
  • Hedge funds and trading firms are piling into physical commodities markets in search of new sources of returns, despite lacking the decades of experience and information accumulated by established players such as Trafigura and Vitol. ($FT)
  • Lending by private credit firms in emerging markets has surged to record levels this year, even as cracks begin to appear in the US sector after years of rapid growth. ($FT)
  • JPMorgan Chase is facing the ire of some of the world’s biggest investors over the bank’s role in a complex multibillion-dollar refinancing at Patrick Drahi’s telecoms group Altice USA that threatens them with heavy losses. ($FT)
  • Australia will ban supermarket price gouging from July 1 under a new law the government says would protect shoppers from excessive grocery prices charged by major retailers. ($BBG)

Currencies

  • Options traders expect the euro’s rally to get fresh impetus next week with the European Central Bank’s meeting expected to underscore its policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. ($BBG)

Politics

  • The Republican chair of the US House of Representatives’ China committee has questioned the information on which the White House based its recent decision to allow Nvidia to export advanced chips to China. ($FT)
  • The EU plans a crackdown on “very dangerous” products sold on online platforms including China’s Shein and Alibaba, its justice commissioner has said, admitting “we need to do better” to protect European consumers. ($FT)

Deal Flow

  • Japan’s $2.4bn banking IPO signals potential consolidation ($FT)
  • Cryptocurrency giant Tether has made a €1.1bn all-cash offer to acquire Italian football club Juventus, in a bid underscoring the burgeoning ambitions and newfound riches of the stablecoin provider. ($FT)
  • Coca-Cola’s proposed sale of Costa Coffee is at risk of collapse and the soft drinks giant is holding last-ditch talks with private equity firm TDR Capital this weekend in an attempt to salvage it. ($FT)
  • BNP Paribas said it has begun exclusive talks with Holmarcom Group to potentially sell its stake in Moroccan subsidiary BMCI. ($WSJ)
  • Australia’s treasurer has signed off on South Korean conglomerate Hanwha’s bid to increase its stake in Australian shipbuilder Austal, saying the deal will be subject to strict conditions. ($WSJ)
  • Keppel REIT is increasing its stake in one of Singapore’s premium office towers in a deal valued at more than US$700 million, adding to its portfolio of prime commercial assets in Asian business districts. ($WSJ)
  • Sumitomo Corp. will invest 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) on several Indian renewable power projects, to take advantage of rapid growth in demand from major industrial users. ($BBG)

Independent Research

  • Dividend yields across the ASX are likely to stay subdued as expectations for medium-term rate cuts continue to draw capital into equities, compressing returns, according to Morningstar’s latest Australian Dividend Outlook.
  • Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other Wall Street banks are forecasting that the US dollar will resume its slide next year as the Federal Reserve keeps nudging down interest rates. ($BBG)

Opinion

  • Can bitcoin bonds fund economic development? ($FT)
  • Will OpenAI’s $1bn deal with Disney boost video app Sora? ($FT)
  • Australia’s social media ban carries health warning for Big Tech investors ($FT)
  • Is there an AI bubble and will it pop next year? ($FT)
  • UBS says sentiment across the resources sector is upbeat but disciplined, as elevated gold prices and a stabilising lithium outlook drive an uptick in exploration, capex and medium-term growth planning.

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