The bull case for 2026 // And the bitcoin meltdown

(FT)

  • Nvidia Results: Strong earnings prevent market meltdown and postpone AI over-investment concerns.
  • Fiscal Largesse: Republican tax cuts and incentives frontloaded to boost household refunds by $700 average and lower corporate taxes to 16%, turning fiscal impulse positive for GDP growth.
  • Interventionist White House: Potential stimulus checks, bond market support to cap Treasury yields, and tariff retreats if economic pressures mount.
  • Corporate Profits: S&P 500 revenues exceed inflation with widening margins beyond just Magnificent 7, showing broad sector strength.
  • Big Tech Valuation: Average forward P/E of 28 with 11% revenue growth, comparable to overvalued Costco, urging market calm on AI hype.
  • Cheap Oil: Prices at $60 provide broad economic stimulus outside oil sector.
  • Tariff Uncertainty: Supreme Court ruling against emergency tariffs could enhance business confidence despite short-term policy flux.
  • Bitcoin Volatility: Price drop from $126,000 to $90,000 linked to macro factors like Fed rates and AI correction, correlating closely with Nasdaq and tech ecosystem.