{"id":114,"date":"2025-12-15T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kate.st\/?p=114"},"modified":"2025-12-14T20:38:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T10:38:19","slug":"before-the-bell-20251215","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kate.st\/?p=114","title":{"rendered":"Before the Bell &#8211; 20251215"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Message<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>And we&#8217;re back, the intern deleted all the spreadsheets used to model this newsletter so they had to spend the week trying to fix it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AUS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>S&amp;P\/ASX 200 index advanced 105.30 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 8697.30.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Newmont rose 5.7 per cent to $150.06.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Genesis Minerals 7.6 per cent to $6.90.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Evolution Mining 4.2 per cent to $12.76.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Westpac rose 1.4 per cent to $38.80.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>National Australia Bank 1.8 per cent to $42.13.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Commonwealth Bank by 2.1 per cent to $155.96.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ANZ rose 1.2 per cent to $35.81 as former boss Shayne Elliott sues the bank after it stripped him of $13.5 million in bonuses last month.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Austal fell 3 per cent to $6.26 after Treasurer Jim Chalmers approved Hanwha\u2019s bid to increase its holding in the shipbuilder from 9.9 per cent to 19.9 per cent, but set out strict conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Scentre Group firmed 1 per cent to $4.20 after bringing in a new Dexus-managed fund as a joint venture partner for a further 25 per cent stake in Brisbane\u2019s Westfield Chermside, at $683 million.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4DMedical jumped 8.8 per cent to $2.22 after securing $30.2 million in funding via an underwriting agreement with Bell Potter Securities to ensure the exercise of all its listed options.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BMC Minerals jumped 25 per cent to $2.50 on its first day of trading on the ASX after the company completed a heavily oversubscribed initial public offering at $2 per share.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US tech stocks slumped on Friday as a sharp decline in Broadcom\u2019s shares following the chipmaker\u2019s earnings reignited investors\u2019 nervousness about high valuations in companies linked to the artificial intelligence boom. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8b9519df-9154-4eb5-ab3b-d3da0115b65e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.1 per cent. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8b9519df-9154-4eb5-ab3b-d3da0115b65e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oracle shares suffered a steep sell-off a day ago after the database company failed to meet analysts\u2019 estimates of revenue growth. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8b9519df-9154-4eb5-ab3b-d3da0115b65e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nvidia lost 3.3 per cent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Palantir fell 2.1 per cent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10yr US government bonds, rose 0.04 percentage points to 4.18 per cent as investors continued to digest the language from Wednesday\u2019s Fed meeting.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crypto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Five cryptocurrency firms received preliminary approval to perform certain banking functions from a US regulator on Friday, marking the latest step in the White House\u2018s embrace of what was once viewed as a risky, fringe industry.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Commodities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Iran has brought in fresh petrol price increases, as US sanctions force the oil-rich country to import refined fuel. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b06edc17-6055-4b1c-aa9b-7fb067c5cd5d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Silver prices have punched through $60 per ounce for the first time amid a historic rally driven by a scarcity of supply and a surge in demand from investors. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/c68c708f-282d-45fe-a9cd-b8871e43ed93\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economy<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>More than 9mn US student loan holders have missed at least one payment this year, as delinquencies in the $1.7tn market soar following the end of the Biden administration\u2019s post-pandemic payments holiday. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b6ca2ab2-2d3a-40d7-9a61-12a6fda0625d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia will book A$20 billion ($13.3 billion) in savings in Wednesday\u2019s mid-year budget update as the government works to offset rising spending pressures, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-14\/australia-flags-13-3-billion-savings-as-budget-pressures-mount\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trump\u2019s AI Bet Clouded by Unemployment and Inflation Fears as voters are becoming increasingly skeptical about its promise and more worried by its perils. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2025-12-13\/trump-s-ai-bet-clouded-by-unemployment-and-inflation-fears\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China\u2019s loan growth disappointed in November with muted overall credit expansion, underlining anemic borrowing by households and businesses is still a concern weighing on the economy. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-12\/china-s-credit-expansion-stays-muted-as-demand-languishes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Business<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Volkswagen will stop manufacturing vehicles at its site in Dresden after Tuesday, marking the first time in the carmaker\u2019s 88-year history that it will close production in Germany. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d7d0fbc8-2e92-49c5-be38-1412d8392fa9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hedge funds and trading firms are piling into physical commodities markets in search of new sources of returns, despite lacking the decades of experience and information accumulated by established players such as Trafigura and Vitol. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/598c3bfc-008c-438f-837c-f7ec73a993f6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lending by private credit firms in emerging markets has surged to record levels this year, even as cracks begin to appear in the US sector after years of rapid growth. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/0e1fbfa3-bf22-4e28-bbfd-c33fa9d264cb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JPMorgan Chase is facing the ire of some of the world\u2019s biggest investors over the bank\u2019s role in a complex multibillion-dollar refinancing at Patrick Drahi\u2019s telecoms group Altice USA that threatens them with heavy losses. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b934d78b-6662-494a-8eb9-7a956f198465\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia will ban supermarket price gouging from July 1 under a new law the government says would protect shoppers from excessive grocery prices charged by major retailers. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-13\/australia-bans-supermarket-price-gouging-to-tackle-rising-grocery-costs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Currencies<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Options traders expect the euro\u2019s rally to get fresh impetus next week with the European Central Bank\u2019s meeting expected to underscore its policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-12\/euro-rally-seen-pushing-ahead-if-ecb-widens-policy-gap-with-fed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Politics<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Republican chair of the US House of Representatives\u2019 China committee has questioned the information on which the White House based its recent decision to allow Nvidia to export advanced chips to China. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/16472de4-f901-4e37-9181-f3656a260cf1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The EU plans a crackdown on \u201cvery dangerous\u201d products sold on online platforms including China\u2019s Shein and Alibaba, its justice commissioner has said, admitting \u201cwe need to do better\u201d to protect European consumers. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5d9f1a02-a60b-418f-8c9b-b711624cd840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Deal Flow<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Japan\u2019s $2.4bn banking IPO signals potential consolidation ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/47bdd495-849d-42a6-bf13-8472c992788a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cryptocurrency giant Tether has made a \u20ac1.1bn all-cash offer to acquire Italian football club Juventus, in a bid underscoring the burgeoning ambitions and newfound riches of the stablecoin provider. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/08586db5-0af1-4a8c-940f-3fc36b481223\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Coca-Cola\u2019s proposed sale of Costa Coffee is at risk of collapse and the soft drinks giant is holding last-ditch talks with private equity firm TDR Capital this weekend in an attempt to salvage it. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/3e42ec97-7922-4d6c-a5f9-d9f3bb59f917\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BNP Paribas said it has begun exclusive talks with Holmarcom Group to potentially sell its stake in Moroccan subsidiary BMCI. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/deals\/bnp-paribas-in-talks-to-sell-its-stake-in-moroccan-bank-bmci-c8295012\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">WSJ<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s treasurer has signed off on South Korean conglomerate Hanwha\u2019s bid to increase its stake in Australian shipbuilder Austal, saying the deal will be subject to strict conditions. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/australia-approves-hanwha-bid-to-increase-austal-stake-52a29dd0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">WSJ<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Keppel REIT is increasing its stake in one of Singapore\u2019s premium office towers in a deal valued at more than US$700 million, adding to its portfolio of prime commercial assets in Asian business districts. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/deals\/keppel-reit-to-boost-stake-in-singapore-office-tower-in-over-700-million-deal-007e779e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">WSJ<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sumitomo Corp. will invest 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) on several Indian renewable power projects, to take advantage of rapid growth in demand from major industrial users. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-12\/sumitomo-to-put-1-3-billion-into-india-renewable-power-projects\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Independent Research<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dividend yields across the ASX are likely to stay subdued as expectations for medium-term rate cuts continue to draw capital into equities, compressing returns, according to Morningstar\u2019s latest Australian Dividend Outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other Wall Street banks are forecasting that the US dollar will resume its slide next year as the Federal Reserve keeps nudging down interest rates. ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-12\/deutsche-bank-goldman-see-fed-cuts-rekindling-dollar-s-slide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBG<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Opinion<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Can bitcoin bonds fund economic development? ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/e641c7f7-d097-4ceb-8d72-bdcadc91d7d0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Will OpenAI\u2019s $1bn deal with Disney boost video app Sora? ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b14490d9-3ac9-45ce-bce5-df6c39db472f\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s social media ban carries health warning for Big Tech investors ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/7efbb1f8-c537-45fa-ac39-29a2183b6190\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Is there an AI bubble and will it pop next year? ($<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/21f59bee-8747-4a44-b992-336ef4c5157f\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FT<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UBS says sentiment across the resources sector is upbeat but disciplined, as elevated gold prices and a stabilising lithium outlook drive an uptick in exploration, capex and medium-term growth planning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Meme Cleanser<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1ebcc0ca-a472-457b-b2ab-f162d663f044-1024x658.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1ebcc0ca-a472-457b-b2ab-f162d663f044-1024x658.webp 1024w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1ebcc0ca-a472-457b-b2ab-f162d663f044-300x193.webp 300w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1ebcc0ca-a472-457b-b2ab-f162d663f044-768x493.webp 768w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1ebcc0ca-a472-457b-b2ab-f162d663f044-1536x986.webp 1536w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/1ebcc0ca-a472-457b-b2ab-f162d663f044.webp 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/55ce1ec4-8320-4e5b-98a0-563011795f29-1024x797.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/55ce1ec4-8320-4e5b-98a0-563011795f29-1024x797.webp 1024w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/55ce1ec4-8320-4e5b-98a0-563011795f29-300x233.webp 300w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/55ce1ec4-8320-4e5b-98a0-563011795f29-768x598.webp 768w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/55ce1ec4-8320-4e5b-98a0-563011795f29.webp 1172w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"386\" src=\"https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/6205561a-a445-4653-9140-bb0b9522ef91-1024x386.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-111\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/6205561a-a445-4653-9140-bb0b9522ef91-1024x386.webp 1024w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/6205561a-a445-4653-9140-bb0b9522ef91-300x113.webp 300w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/6205561a-a445-4653-9140-bb0b9522ef91-768x290.webp 768w, https:\/\/kate.st\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/6205561a-a445-4653-9140-bb0b9522ef91.webp 1206w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Message And we&#8217;re back, the intern deleted all the spreadsheets used to model this newsletter so they had to spend the week trying to fix it. Markets AUS US Crypto Commodities Economy Business Currencies Politics Deal Flow Independent Research Opinion Meme Cleanser<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-before-the-bell"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=114"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116,"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114\/revisions\/116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kate.st\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}