The Day Ahead
Watch for immediate volatility in gold and copper as investors pivot away from safe-haven assets toward AI-critical industrial metals. The recent crash in gold prices, driven by a hawkish US Federal Reserve tone, is forcing a portfolio recalibration that should provide a tailwind for established copper producers and rare earth miners.
Keep a close eye on the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent crude already climbing above $US75 a barrel following projectile attacks and Iranian threats to charge fees for passage, any further escalation will spike energy costs globally. This geopolitical tension is the primary risk to the current market stability.
Domestically, the focus shifts to the fallout from the Albanese government's tax overhaul. Expect a wave of strategic shifts in property portfolios as the new restrictions on negative gearing and the transition to an inflation-indexed CGT model take hold. The market will be watching for whether this triggers a genuine dip in house prices or simply drives investment into new-builds.
Yesterday's Key Stories
Mining & Resources
- BHP has announced a significant leadership reshuffle under CEO-designate Brandon Craig, including a new regional structure for the Americas and new leadership for Copper South Australia.
- 29Metals reported high-grade drilling results from the Oizon deposit at Golden Grove, with first ore expected by the end of 2026.
- Covalent Lithium has appointed Stuart Macnaughton as CEO to lead the ramp-up of the Mt Holland mine and Kwinana refinery.
- C29 Metals and Midas Minerals are accelerating copper exploration in Namibia, targeting the Otavi, Damara, and Kalahari regions.
- S2 Resources, Lefroy Exploration, and Rincon Resources all reported increased exploration activity and positive drilling results across Western Australia.
- ASX has issued a stern warning to mining companies to stop "cherry-picking" assay results and to improve the accuracy of performance updates to avoid misleading investors.
- Fortescue CEO Andrew Forrest issued a staff warning following a class action alleging sexual assault and stalking at remote sites.
Infrastructure & Energy
- Port Hedland is moving closer to completing its Zone 5 Bypass Channel with a $50 million dredging contract awarded to Jan De Nul Australia to secure iron ore exports.
- Cloud Carrier faces fierce local opposition to a proposed data centre in Moss Vale, NSW, due to its reliance on a 673-megawatt gas power station.
- Russia and Timor-Leste are pursuing deeper cooperation in energy and mining, specifically targeting the Greater Sunrise assets.
Macro, Policy & Finance
- Federal Budget: The underlying budget deficit narrowed to $10.9 billion, bolstered by record tax revenues from high commodity prices and low unemployment.
- Tax Reform: The government passed a major overhaul restricting negative gearing to new builds and replacing the 50% CGT discount with an inflation indexation model.
- Financial Regulation: ASIC is increasing scrutiny on private credit fund valuations and has sued directors of the failed $530m Shield Master Fund.
- Audit Sector: KPMG is embroiled in a major scandal over the misuse of client data, prompting calls for mandatory 10-year audit tenders for listed companies.
- Banking: CBA has cut mortgage rates by 5 to 8 basis points to combat slowing housing demand linked to the new tax changes.